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AI Predicted Winner
Sassuolo
39%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Sassuolo✦ AI Pick | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Pinnacle | |||
Dafabet | |||
| Best Odds |
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Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction: this Serie A relegation-flavored clash at Reggio Emilia pits 14th-placed Sassuolo (8 points) against 18th-placed Fiorentina (4 points), who sit inside the drop zone. Bookmakers surprisingly lean toward the visitors at roughly 40%, but the underlying data points the other way.
Sassuolo have been leaky, conceding 22 goals in nine games, including a 6-2 home defeat to Lazio last week. Still, they hold a clear edge on points per game (0.89 versus 0.50) and have scored 1.56 goals per game. Fiorentina have lost six of eight, concede 2.38 goals per game, and have won once in their last seven league outings. Their away record is poor, and they are searching for any rhythm.
Sassuolo are without five players, including Kone (broken leg), Candé and Paz, which will blunt their depth. Fiorentina miss only Sottil. Both sides have low fatigue risk, though the visitors have had three extra days of rest.
Our model sides narrowly with the hosts. Home advantage, a four-place gap and better attacking output outweigh the market's lean toward Fiorentina. Expect goals, as both defenses are porous. Our football tips today favor a tight Sassuolo win with real draw risk.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Recent head-to-head favors Sassuolo. In the last two years of meetings, Fiorentina won 5-1 in April 2024 before Sassuolo took...
Recent head-to-head favors Sassuolo. In the last two years of meetings, Fiorentina won 5-1 in April 2024 before Sassuolo took the December 2025 clash 3-1 at home, with the most recent meeting in April 2026 finishing 0-0 in Florence. Sassuolo have won their home fixtures in this series, while Fiorentina's last away result here was a goalless draw. Goals have been plentiful in most of these games, though the latest stalemate shows both sides can cancel each other out.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted
9 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
3.7/10
Sassuolo's form is poor but not hopeless. They've lost three straight league games, including the...
Sassuolo's form is poor but not hopeless. They've lost three straight league games, including the heavy 6-2 defeat to Lazio and a 2-0 loss at Como, and have conceded 22 goals in nine matches. Their 1-1 draw with AC Milan and a 3-2 home win over Juventus show they can compete at home, where they have two wins, one draw and one defeat. Attack is the strength at 1.56 goals per game. Injuries are a major concern, with Kone, Pieragnolo, Candé, Boloca and Paz all unavailable, which strips depth from midfield and defense. Rest is comfortable at five days.
9 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
4.3/10
Fiorentina are in genuine trouble. They've lost six of eight league games, including defeats to...
Fiorentina are in genuine trouble. They've lost six of eight league games, including defeats to Inter, Como and Genoa in their last three, and sit 18th with just four points. Offensively they average 1.12 goals per game and have failed to score twice, while conceding 2.38 per game with no clean sheets. Their sole away win came in a 4-2 victory at Venezia. Home form has been dire, with no wins in four. Sottil's back injury is their only absence. They've had eight days' rest, but a busy fixture list follows, including Juventus on November 8.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina - Match Analysis
Sassuolo hold home advantage, sit four places higher, and average 0.89 points per game against Fiorentina's 0.50. They also score more (1.56 versus 1.12 per game). Fiorentina have lost six of eight league games and won only once away, so despite the bookmakers favoring them, the underlying numbers support the hosts.
Draw No Bet on Sassuolo protects against a stalemate while keeping value on the hosts. Over 2.5 Goals is attractive because both defenses are porous, conceding more than 2.3 goals per game. Both Teams to Score also looks reasonable. Avoid heavy handicaps, as neither side has shown the consistency to win comfortably.
Fiorentina sit 18th in the relegation zone with just four points, so every result matters for their survival hopes. Sassuolo are 14th with eight points, only a few places above danger, and a win would give them breathing room. Both teams need points badly, which should produce an intense, open contest.
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