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Stadium de Toulouse
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
39.2%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Toulouse | Draw✦ AI Pick | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Dafabet | |||
Betfair | |||
| Best Odds |
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Toulouse host Strasbourg in a Ligue 1 fixture that looks finely balanced on every measure we track. Our model gives the draw the edge at 39.2%, with Toulouse at 36.4% and Strasbourg at 24.4%. No side clears 46% in the initial assessment, so there is no clear favorite here.
The clearest driver is Toulouse's tendency to share points. They have drawn four of their last eight matches, and the combined draw rate for the two clubs sits at 31.2%. The sides are separated by just five league places and 0.37 points per game, which points to two teams operating at a similar level rather than a mismatch.
Goals are the one factor pulling against a stalemate, as both teams average 1.5 per game. That output does not rule out a draw, though. It makes a shared scoreline such as 1-1 or 2-2 entirely plausible, particularly if both defenses concede but neither can pull clear. Six of seven draw indicators in our model point the same way, and our confidence is medium rather than high.
For bettors, the draw market is the main angle, with Toulouse's recent record and the narrow gap between the clubs supporting the case. Those wanting to hedge could consider Toulouse double chance, given the home side holds a slight edge over Strasbourg. Kickoff is at 19:45 UTC on 6 November 2026.
Moderate
Moderate
Unfavorable
Moderate
2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
In the last two years Toulouse and Strasbourg have met three times in Ligue 1. Toulouse won the two most...
In the last two years Toulouse and Strasbourg have met three times in Ligue 1. Toulouse won the two most recent, 1-0 at home in December 2025 and 2-1 at Strasbourg in May 2026, while Strasbourg took the January 2025 meeting 2-1 in Toulouse. Games have been tight, with margins of one goal or less every time, so a narrow result looks more likely than a blowout. Toulouse hold the recent edge.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLigue 1 matches highlighted
11 of 15 in Ligue 1
Form Rating
4.7/10
Toulouse have drawn four of their eight league matches and won only two, giving 1.25...
Toulouse have drawn four of their eight league matches and won only two, giving 1.25 points per game. Their 3-0 win at Le Mans showed an attacking edge, while a 0-0 home draw with Troyes showed how easily they stall. At home they have just one win from four, so they have been unconvincing at Stadium de Toulouse. Defensively they concede 1.38 per game and have kept two clean sheets. Messali, Oppong and Niflore are listed as injured, which could thin their options, but the sharper concern is converting chances at home. Their 12 days of rest is an advantage.
9 of 15 in Ligue 1
Form Rating
3/10
Strasbourg's form is poor: three straight league defeats to Nice, PSG and Rennes, with just...
Strasbourg's form is poor: three straight league defeats to Nice, PSG and Rennes, with just one goal scored across them. They have conceded 18 goals in eight games, 2.25 per match, and have not kept a single clean sheet. Away from home they have won once in five, with a heavy 0-4 loss at Marseille the low point. Offensively there is some life, shown by the 6-2 win at Troyes, but that looks like an outlier. A five-man injury list including Panichelli, Balde and Nanasi deepens the problem, and their 0.88 points per game rank among the weakest in the division.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg - Match Analysis
Our model gives the draw a 39.2% chance, ahead of a Toulouse win at 36.4% and a Strasbourg win at 24.4%. Six of seven draw indicators fire: the combined draw rate is 31.2%, the sides are separated by just five league places and 0.37 points per game, and Toulouse have drawn four of their last eight. With no dominant favorite, a shared result looks most likely.
Toulouse are slight favorites on paper, but the numbers suggest they may struggle to turn that into three points. They have drawn half their recent matches, and the gap to Strasbourg is only five places and 0.37 points per game. With both sides averaging 1.5 goals per game, Strasbourg should find chances to score, making a 1-1 or 2-2 scoreline very plausible.
The draw itself looks like the standout value play. Six of seven draw signals are active, and when the combined draw rate passes 30%, realistic draw frequency approaches 35%. At roughly 39% model probability, it beats backing Toulouse on a sub-50% favorite. Given both teams average 1.5 goals per game, also look at both teams to score or a 1-1 correct score if the odds are decent.
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