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Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
38.6%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Venezia | Draw✦ AI Pick | Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Dafabet | |||
Betfair | |||
| Best Odds |
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Venezia host Udinese in Serie A on 6 November 2026, and the numbers point toward a shared result. Only three league places and 0.23 points per game separate the sides, and neither arrives as a clear favorite. Our model makes the draw the likeliest single outcome at 38.6%, with Udinese at 34.4% and Venezia at 27.0%.
Scoring is the main driver here. Venezia average just 0.67 goals per game and Udinese 1.0, a combined 1.67 that sits well below the 2.2 mark where draw rates tend to climb toward 33%. Low-event contests between near-equals often settle on 0-0 or 1-1, and neither team shows a decisive attacking edge capable of breaking the deadlock.
Five of seven draw indicators point the same way: the low combined scoring, the narrow table gap, the small points-per-game differential, the absence of a dominant side, and a market that already assigns the draw a share above 25%. The individual draw records of both clubs are modest, which keeps confidence low, but the collective signals outweigh that caution.
From a betting angle, the draw deserves attention as the headline selection, particularly if prices drift toward the longer end. Under 2.5 total goals also fits the profile of two sides struggling to score, and it can work as a companion angle. Given the low confidence rating, sensible staking matters, as a single goal could swing this fixture either way.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 5 head-to-head matchups
Udinese have the recent edge in this fixture. They won the Coppa Italia meeting 2-1 on 2 September and took...
Udinese have the recent edge in this fixture. They won the Coppa Italia meeting 2-1 on 2 September and took a 3-2 Serie A win on 1 February 2025. Venezia's only win in the window came on 30 October 2024, a 3-2 home victory. Four of the last five meetings in the wider record produced at least three goals, so past clashes have been more open than either team's current numbers suggest. Within the last two years the record reads two Udinese wins to one Venezia win, a modest but real tilt toward the visitors.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted
10 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
2.3/10
Venezia's season has been a struggle from the first whistle. They have lost eight of...
Venezia's season has been a struggle from the first whistle. They have lost eight of nine league games, with the lone win a 1-0 home result over Napoli on 17 October. Since then they have lost 1-0 at Genoa and 2-0 at home to Inter. Defensively they concede 2.11 goals per game, and going forward they average only 0.67, with five blanks in nine. Their home record of one win from five offers little comfort, though the Napoli result proves they can grind out a result. Hip injury absentee Sverko is the only listed concern, and they have had nine days of rest.
10 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
4.3/10
Udinese are in poor form but showed a flicker of resilience in a 0-0 draw...
Udinese are in poor form but showed a flicker of resilience in a 0-0 draw at Parma on 28 October, only their second draw of the season. Before that came home defeats to AC Milan (2-0) and Lecce (3-0), and a 2-1 loss at Torino. They have scored in just five of nine league matches and concede two goals a game. Their away record is better than their home one, with a win at Monza and a draw from four trips. Injuries are a real worry, with Alaba, Bayo, Solet, Gueye, Zanoli and Bertola all listed as out.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Venezia vs Udinese - Match Analysis
Our model gives the draw a 38.6% chance, ahead of Udinese at 34.4% and Venezia at 27.0%. The sides sit just three places and 0.23 points per game apart, with no dominant favorite. Both are low-scoring, combining for only 1.67 goals per game, which pushes draw rates up. Confidence is low, so treat this as a lean rather than a lock.
With Venezia scoring 0.67 goals per game and Udinese 1.0, under 2.5 total goals looks like a natural companion to the draw. A 0-0 or 1-1 correct score also fits the profile. Double chance markets can hedge the low confidence rating. On the draw itself, any price longer than about 2.60 offers positive expected value based on our 38.6% estimate.
Udinese were the earlier pick, but they average just one goal per game, which makes breaking down an evenly matched side difficult. With only three league places between them and no clear attacking edge, one goal could be all that separates the teams. Udinese's 34.4% win probability trails the draw, so the risk-adjusted value favors a shared result over backing them outright.
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