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Atalanta
Atalanta7th in Serie A (8-8-5)
VS
Parma
Parma14th in Serie A (5-7-8)

Atalanta vs Parma

Sunday, Jan 25, 2026 · --:--

New Balance Arena

Final
Atalanta
4–0
Parma

Atalanta won

Our prediction was correct
✓

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Atalanta vs Parma prediction centers on the home team's superior quality and recent momentum at the New Balance Arena. Atalanta sits 7th with 32 points, while Parma languishes in 14th with just 22 points, highlighting a clear class difference in this Serie A preview. The hosts have shown resilience with three wins in their last five matches, including victories over Roma and Torino at home. Parma arrives in poor away form, managing just three wins from eleven road trips this season. Key injuries plague both sides - Atalanta miss Lookman and Bellanova, while Parma are without goalkeeper Suzuki and midfielder Ndiaye. The head-to-head record from recent years shows mixed results, with their last meeting ending 1-1 at Parma's ground. However, Atalanta's home advantage and superior squad depth should prove decisive. Our expert picks favor the hosts to secure all three points, making this one of our top football tips today with strong value for home backers.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Atalanta (7)Draws (1)Parma (2)
Aug 30, 25
(H)Parma1 - 1Atalanta(A)
D
May 25, 25
(H)Atalanta2 - 3Parma(A)
A
Nov 23, 24
(H)Parma1 - 3Atalanta(A)
A
Aug 4, 24
(H)Parma4 - 1Atalanta(A)
H
May 9, 21
(H)Parma2 - 5Atalanta(A)
A
Jan 6, 21
(H)Atalanta3 - 0Parma(A)
H
Jul 28, 20
(H)Parma1 - 2Atalanta(A)
A
Jan 6, 20
(H)Atalanta5 - 0Parma(A)
H
Mar 31, 19
(H)Parma1 - 3Atalanta(A)
A
Oct 27, 18
(H)Atalanta3 - 0Parma(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters between these sides have produced entertaining affairs with goals aplenty. Their last meeting in August 2025 ended 1-1...

Recent encounters between these sides have produced entertaining affairs with goals aplenty. Their last meeting in August 2025 ended 1-1 at Parma's Tardini Stadium, while Atalanta won the reverse fixture 3-1 in November 2024. The historical pattern shows Atalanta's dominance, particularly at home where they've consistently outclassed Parma. Over their last six meetings since 2024, Atalanta have won four times with two draws, scoring freely in most encounters.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted

Atalanta

11 of 15 in Serie A

D
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
W

Form Rating

7/10

Atalanta Form Analysis

Trending

Atalanta have recovered well from their early season inconsistencies, collecting eight points from their last...

Atalanta have recovered well from their early season inconsistencies, collecting eight points from their last five league matches. Their home form at the New Balance Arena remains solid with key victories over Roma (1-0) and Torino (2-0) demonstrating their ability to grind out results. The recent 1-1 draw at struggling Pisa was disappointing but followed an impressive 2-0 away win at Bologna. Missing star forward Lookman to international duty is a significant blow, while Bellanova's injury weakens their right flank. However, their attacking depth and home crowd support should compensate for these absences.

Parma

13 of 15 in Serie A

D
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
D
L
L
D

Form Rating

4.7/10

Parma Form Analysis

Analysis

Parma's season has been a struggle for survival, with just five wins from twenty matches...

Parma's season has been a struggle for survival, with just five wins from twenty matches leaving them precariously positioned. Their away record is particularly concerning - three wins, seven draws, and five losses on the road highlight their travel sickness. Recent form shows slight improvement with a crucial 2-1 victory at Lecce, but they followed this with a disappointing goalless draw against title-chasing Napoli. Key absences include goalkeeper Suzuki and creative midfielder Ndiaye, forcing tactical adjustments. Their defensive frailties have been exposed regularly, conceding 22 goals in 20 matches while struggling to create consistent attacking threats away from home.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Atalanta8-8-538.1%
Parma5-7-825.0%
Goals Scored
Atalanta26
Parma14
Goals Conceded
Atalanta20
Parma22

shieldAtalanta4

  • M. Bakker profile photo

    M. Bakker

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • A. Lookman profile photo

    A. Lookman

    International duty
    Out
  • B. Djimsiti profile photo

    B. Djimsiti

    Injury
    Out
  • R. Bellanova profile photo

    R. Bellanova

    Injury
    Out
M. BakkerAtalanta
A. LookmanAtalanta
B. DjimsitiAtalanta
R. BellanovaAtalanta

shieldParma8

  • V. Guaita profile photo

    V. Guaita

    Shoulder Injury
    Questionable
  • A. Benedyczak profile photo

    A. Benedyczak

    Illness
    Questionable
  • P. Almqvist profile photo

    P. Almqvist

    Injury
    Questionable
  • Z. Suzuki profile photo

    Z. Suzuki

    Finger Injury
    Out
  • A. Ndiaye profile photo

    A. Ndiaye

    Groin Injury
    Out
V. GuaitaParma
A. BenedyczakParma
P. AlmqvistParma
Z. SuzukiParma
A. NdiayeParma
M. FriganParma
M. LovikParma
M. TroiloParma

Showing 1-5 of 8 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Atalanta+6
Parma-8

Atalanta vs Parma - Match Analysis

Why is Atalanta strongly favored against Parma?

Atalanta's superior league position (7th vs 14th), home advantage at the New Balance Arena, and Parma's woeful away record (3 wins in 11 games) create a significant gulf between these teams. The hosts have won their last two home matches convincingly, while Parma have managed just one away win since October. Quality difference in squad depth and tactical organization heavily favors the home side.

How do the key injuries affect this Atalanta vs Parma prediction?

Both teams face important absences that could influence the outcome. Atalanta miss star forward Lookman and wing-back Bellanova, reducing their attacking threat and width. However, Parma's losses are more damaging - goalkeeper Suzuki and creative midfielder Ndiaye are crucial players whose absence weakens their already fragile away setup. Atalanta's superior squad depth gives them a clear advantage in managing these injury concerns.

What alternative bets should I consider for this Serie A match?

The Atalanta -1 Asian Handicap stands out as our top alternative pick, offering 70% confidence based on their home dominance and Parma's defensive frailties. Over 2.5 Goals also appeals given both teams' recent scoring patterns, while Both Teams to Score 'No' provides value considering Parma's attacking struggles away from home. These markets offer better odds than the straight win while maintaining strong probability of success.

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