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Vila Belmiro
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AI Predicted Winner
Santos
61%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Santos✦ AI Pick | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Dafabet | |||
Betano | |||
| Best Odds |
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This Santos vs Chapecoense-sc prediction centers on a huge gulf in league fortunes at Vila Belmiro. Santos sit 16th with 21 points, while Chapecoense-sc are rock bottom on 9 points and already marked for the Serie B relegation zone.
Santos have struggled for consistency, winning just five of nineteen league games, but their home record stands out: five wins, two draws, only three losses at Vila Belmiro this season. Chapecoense-sc's away form is the worst in the division, with zero wins from eight trips and a shocking 17 goals shipped on the road.
Injuries bite for Santos, with Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa both unavailable, which softens their attacking edge, but Chapecoense-sc's threadbare squad and multiple absences leave them even more exposed defensively. Fixture congestion is a factor too, with Santos juggling Sudamericana duties either side of this game.
Bookmakers heavily favor the hosts at odds around 1.48, and the underlying numbers back that up. Santos average 1.42 goals scored at home against a Chapecoense-sc defense conceding 1.94 per game. Expect Santos to control this one and pick up a much-needed home win, with goals likely at both ends given the leaky defenses on show.
Moderate
Moderate
Even
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The two sides met once already this year, in January, when Chapecoense-sc, playing away, ran out 4-2 winners at home...
The two sides met once already this year, in January, when Chapecoense-sc, playing away, ran out 4-2 winners at home in a bizarre reading of hosting rights — Santos actually won that encounter 4-2 as the away side. Beyond that single 2026 meeting there's no other head-to-head data within the last two years, so this preview leans primarily on current form and league standing rather than historical patterns between these two Brazilian clubs.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
7 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
5.7/10
Santos have been erratic, losing four of their last five outings across competitions after a...
Santos have been erratic, losing four of their last five outings across competitions after a hot run of home wins in April and May. Their home form remains their biggest asset: five wins, two draws, just three losses from ten matches at Vila Belmiro. Injuries hurt though, with Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa both out, denting the attacking output that averages 1.42 goals per game. Defensively they're leaky at 1.63 conceded per game, but against the league's bottom side that shouldn't matter. Watch for whoever steps into the void left by Neymar to carry creative responsibility going forward.
7 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4/10
Chapecoense-sc are bottom of Serie A with just one win in seventeen matches and already...
Chapecoense-sc are bottom of Serie A with just one win in seventeen matches and already effectively resigned to relegation. Their away form is alarming: zero wins in eight road games, conceding at nearly two goals per game on average. Multiple injuries compound their problems, with six players missing including squad regulars, leaving little depth. They have shown occasional flashes, scoring in bursts against weaker opposition in cup competitions, but Serie A form has been dismal. Any positive result here would represent a major shock given how thin this squad looks defensively and going forward.
Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc - Match Analysis
Santos hold a commanding advantage on paper: four places higher in the table, a 0.58 points-per-game edge, and a much stronger home record with five wins from ten at Vila Belmiro. Chapecoense-sc, by contrast, have won zero away games all season and sit rock bottom with just nine points. Bookmakers reflect this gap clearly, pricing Santos as strong 63.4% favorites for this Serie A matchup.
Beyond the straightforward Santos win, Over 2.5 Goals looks attractive given both teams' leaky defenses and a combined 2.42 goals per game average this season. Draw No Bet: Santos is a solid hedge option too, essentially removing the low-probability draw outcome while keeping most of the value from backing the home side. BTTS Yes also carries appeal considering both sides have struggled defensively in recent matches.
For Chapecoense-sc, this is close to a must-win scenario as they sit bottom of Serie A and already look destined for relegation to Serie B. For Santos, sitting just above the bottom four, three points would ease mid-table anxiety and provide breathing room while they also juggle a demanding Copa Sudamericana schedule around this fixture.
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