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AI Predicted Winner
Palmeiras
44%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Gremio | Draw | Palmeiras✦ AI Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
Betano | |||
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Betfair | |||
| Best Odds |
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Gremio vs Palmeiras prediction: this Serie A clash brings together a struggling mid-table side and one of Brazil's title contenders. Gremio sit 15th with just 28 points from 25 games, hampered by a poor away record but a respectable home mark of seven wins from twelve. Palmeiras, meanwhile, sit second with 53 points and boast the league's best defensive numbers, conceding under a goal per game.
Form favors the visitors heavily. Palmeiras have lost just three times all season and arrive unbeaten in five, with a win and two draws in their last three outings across competitions. Gremio, in contrast, have won only once in their last five, including back-to-back league defeats to Vasco da Gama and Vitoria.
Injuries compound Gremio's issues, with Dodi, Marlon, Amuzu and Pavon all unavailable, thinning an already stretched squad. Palmeiras have their own absentees, including Paulinho and Jefte, but their squad depth has proven more than sufficient to cover gaps this season.
Bookmakers make Palmeiras clear favorites at 42.9%, and the underlying numbers back that up: a 13-place table gap and nearly a full point-per-game advantage. Expect Palmeiras to control possession and create the better chances, though Gremio's solid home form suggests they won't be steamrolled. A narrow away win looks the most probable outcome, with goals at both ends plausible given both sides' attacking tendencies this season.
Moderate
Moderate
Favorable
High
2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The last five meetings between these sides split three wins for Palmeiras, one for Gremio, and one draw. Palmeiras' most...
The last five meetings between these sides split three wins for Palmeiras, one for Gremio, and one draw. Palmeiras' most recent trip to Porto Alegre in November 2025 ended in a narrow 3-2 defeat, but they've otherwise dominated recent encounters, including a 2-1 win in Porto Alegre back in April 2026. Palmeiras have generally traveled well in this fixture, winning four of the last six meetings regardless of venue, a pattern that supports their favorite status here.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
8 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4.3/10
Gremio have won just once in their last five matches, slipping to 15th place with...
Gremio have won just once in their last five matches, slipping to 15th place with only 28 points from 25 games. Their away form has been particularly troubling all season, with zero wins in thirteen attempts, though their home record of seven wins from twelve is markedly stronger. Recent results have been erratic domestically — a home loss to Vasco da Gama sandwiched between a Copa do Brasil win over rivals Internacional. Key absences hurt here: Dodi (knee), Marlon and Amuzu are all sidelined, thinning midfield options. Gremio have failed to score in nine matches this season, a concerning trend against a defensively sound Palmeiras side. Home advantage offers some hope, but consistency remains the issue.
8 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
6.3/10
Palmeiras sit second in Serie A with 53 points from 26 games, driven by the...
Palmeiras sit second in Serie A with 53 points from 26 games, driven by the league's best defense at 0.81 goals conceded per game and ten clean sheets. Their recent form shows just one loss in the last eight outings, including a comfortable 2-0 win over Sao Paulo and a Libertadores victory over LDU de Quito. Away form is particularly strong, with seven wins and only two losses in fourteen road trips. Injuries to Paulinho, Jefte and Sosa are notable, but Palmeiras' squad depth has repeatedly compensated for absences this season. With 45 goals scored and a +24 goal difference, they carry a clear attacking and defensive edge into Porto Alegre.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Gremio vs Palmeiras - Match Analysis
Palmeiras sit second in Serie A with 53 points, 25 more than 15th-placed Gremio, and boast the league's stingiest defense at 0.81 goals conceded per game. Their away record this season is excellent, with seven wins from fourteen matches. Gremio, by contrast, have won zero away games all season, though this fixture takes place at their home ground, softening the gap slightly.
Draw No Bet: Palmeiras is a strong alternative, protecting bettors from a draw while still capturing the expected value of the away side's superior underlying numbers. Over 2.5 Goals also stands out given combined goals per game sit at 2.81 this season. Both markets offer more cushion than a straight moneyline bet on the away win.
Gremio have actually been solid at home, winning seven of twelve matches with only two defeats, a much better record than their away form suggests. That home strength, combined with Palmeiras' current injury list including Paulinho and Jefte, gives Gremio a realistic chance of frustrating the visitors or even snatching a win, even though the underlying data still favors Palmeiras.
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