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AI Predicted Winner
Mirassol
50%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Mirassol✦ AI Pick | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
BetVictor | |||
Marathonbet | |||
| Best Odds |
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Mirassol vs Vitoria in Serie A Brazil pits two mid-table sides fighting on opposite ends of the table's middle third, with Mirassol sitting 16th on 28 points and Vitoria just above in 14th with 29 points. Despite the tight standings gap, bookmakers clearly favor the hosts, with Mirassol priced around 51% to win compared to just 21% for Vitoria.
Mirassol's home record is the driving factor here — five wins, four draws, and only four losses in 13 home matches, with a much healthier goal output at home than on the road. Vitoria, meanwhile, has been dreadful away from Salvador, picking up zero wins in 13 away trips this season, managing just four draws and eight losses.
Injuries complicate Vitoria's task further, with multiple defensive absences including Camutanga (broken leg) and several other missing fixtures, while Mirassol also has key players sidelined but retains home comforts. Vitoria's away goals return of well under one per game raises real doubts about their attacking threat on the road.
Given Mirassol's superior home form and Vitoria's away struggles, this points toward a home win, though Vitoria's tendency to grind out results (nine clean sheets overall) means a low-scoring, competitive affair is likely rather than a rout.
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2026 Season
Last 6 head-to-head matchups
The last three meetings between these sides, all since 2025, have gone against Mirassol as the away team in two...
The last three meetings between these sides, all since 2025, have gone against Mirassol as the away team in two of those encounters, including a 2-0 and 1-0 loss at Vitoria's Barradao. Their most recent meeting in March 2026 saw Vitoria lose 1-0 at home. With this fixture reversing venue advantage to Mirassol's turf, recent history offers limited direct guidance, though it shows both teams capable of narrow, low-scoring results.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
10 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
3.7/10
Mirassol arrives off a win at Coritiba but sandwiched between a heavy 5-1 home defeat...
Mirassol arrives off a win at Coritiba but sandwiched between a heavy 5-1 home defeat to Flamengo and a 2-1 road loss at Palmeiras just before that. Their recent stretch is mixed with results across Serie A, Copa do Brasil, and Libertadores duties diluting consistency. At home specifically, Mirassol has been much sturdier, going five wins, four draws, just four losses across 13 matches, averaging healthier goal returns than on the road. Injuries to Edson Carioca, Jose Aldo, Negueba, and Walter thin their squad depth, but home advantage and superior home scoring rates should carry weight against a struggling away side.
9 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
3.7/10
Vitoria's away form has been alarming — zero wins from 13 road matches this season,...
Vitoria's away form has been alarming — zero wins from 13 road matches this season, with just four draws and nine defeats, scoring only 12 goals across those away trips. Their most recent results include back-to-back cup losses to Vasco DA Gama and a league defeat at Atletico-MG, extending a rough patch. A lengthy injury list including Camutanga, Edu, and several others further weakens an already fragile away unit. Vitoria has shown defensive resilience overall with nine clean sheets across the season, but their inability to win away from Barradao is the clearest red flag heading into this fixture.
Showing 1-5 of 11 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Mirassol vs Vitoria - Match Analysis
Mirassol's home form is significantly stronger than Vitoria's away record. Mirassol has won five of 13 home games with just four losses, while Vitoria has failed to win any of their 13 away matches this season. Bookmakers weight this home/away split heavily, pricing Mirassol at roughly 51% despite the tight overall points gap between the two sides.
Draw No Bet: Mirassol is an appealing option, protecting against a draw while still backing the home win angle given Vitoria's winless away campaign. Under 2.5 Goals also has merit, as combined goals per game sit at 2.08 and both defenses have shown moments of solidity, including Vitoria's nine clean sheets on the season.
Vitoria's away form is the single biggest factor working against them here. Zero wins in 13 away matches, scoring under one goal per game on the road, paints a troubling picture heading into Mirassol's home turf. Combined with a lengthy injury list, Vitoria's chances of avoiding defeat rest largely on their defensive discipline rather than any attacking threat.
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