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AI Predicted Winner
San Jose Earthquakes
45%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | San Jose Earthquakes✦ AI Pick | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
Bet365 | |||
10BetBest Odds | |||
Pinnacle | |||
| Best Odds |
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San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City prediction: this MLS Western Conference clash pits third-placed San Jose against seventh-placed St. Louis City at PayPal Park. San Jose sit on 33 points from 18 games, boasting the league's most explosive attack with 2.06 goals per game, while St. Louis City arrive with a modest 1.33 goals per game but a stubbornly even defense.
San Jose's recent form is choppy — three losses in their last four league outings, including a 4-0 hammering by Orlando City, despite a strong overall season. St. Louis City have been more consistent lately, unbeaten in four before the break with two wins and two draws.
Injuries hit San Jose harder, with two players ruled out and two more questionable, thinning their attacking and defensive options. St. Louis City have three absences of their own but their squad depth appears less disrupted.
Both sides have scored freely this season, and with combined goals per game sitting at 3.39, expect an open, end-to-end contest. San Jose's home advantage and superior underlying numbers make them the deserved favorites, but their recent defensive fragility keeps this from being a one-sided call. Expect goals at both ends, with San Jose edging it via home comforts and attacking quality, though St. Louis City's tightened defense makes an upset or draw a live possibility.
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2026 Season
Last 8 head-to-head matchups
These sides met four times in the past two years, with St. Louis City winning three, including a 2-1 away...
These sides met four times in the past two years, with St. Louis City winning three, including a 2-1 away win in April 2026 just months before this rematch. San Jose's only success in that stretch came away at St. Louis in April 2026, a 3-2 thriller. The pattern shows St. Louis City historically thriving in this fixture despite the current league gap, making this a closer contest than the table alone suggests.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsMajor League Soccer matches highlighted
11 of 15 in Major League Soccer
Form Rating
5/10
San Jose sit third in the Western Conference with 33 points and boast the division's...
San Jose sit third in the Western Conference with 33 points and boast the division's most potent attack at 2.06 goals per game. However, their recent form has wobbled — three defeats in four matches, including a damaging 4-0 home loss to Orlando City and a narrow away loss at Cincinnati. Two confirmed injuries and two questionable players in defense and midfield add uncertainty. Still, San Jose's away form this season (six wins from nine) shows a team capable of scoring goals in bunches when firing, and they'll look to reset at home following two weeks of rest.
12 of 15 in Major League Soccer
Form Rating
7/10
St. Louis City sit seventh with 26 points and a balanced 1.33 goals scored and...
St. Louis City sit seventh with 26 points and a balanced 1.33 goals scored and conceded per game. Their recent form has actually been solid — one loss in their last five, with wins over Colorado Rapids, Los Angeles Galaxy and Sporting Kansas City sandwiched around draws. Their away record is shakier though, with just two wins from nine on the road. Three injuries in defense could expose them against San Jose's attack, but their improved consistency suggests they won't be pushovers.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City - Match Analysis
San Jose sit fourth places higher in the standings with a significantly better points-per-game rate and the league's best scoring output at 2.06 goals per game. Bookmakers price them at 45.5% largely due to their attacking quality and home advantage. However, recent defensive lapses and injuries mean this isn't an overwhelming favorite situation, more a moderate edge built on scoring firepower.
Over 2.5 Goals stands out given both teams' attacking tendencies and San Jose's recent defensive vulnerabilities, with combined goals per game near 3.4. Draw No Bet: San Jose is also worth considering for bettors wanting protection against a surprise St. Louis City result, since the head-to-head has favored the visitors recently despite San Jose's superior table position.
San Jose have lost three of their last four matches, including a heavy home defeat, raising questions about their current sharpness despite strong season-long numbers. St. Louis City, meanwhile, have been steadier with just one loss in five. This form discrepancy narrows the gap between the teams and supports a competitive match rather than a routine home win.
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