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Estadio El Sardinero
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AI Predicted Winner
Alaves
37%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Racing Santander | Draw | Alaves✦ AI Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Marathonbet | |||
Pinnacle | |||
| Best Odds |
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Racing Santander vs Alaves prediction: this La Liga clash at Estadio El Sardinero pits a newly-promoted side finding its feet against one of the division's early surprise packages. Racing sit 10th with four points from three games, showing a mixed home record of one win and one draw, while conceding freely at 1.67 goals per game. Alaves, meanwhile, are unbeaten through three matches, sit fifth with seven points, and boast the division's second-best defense at just 0.33 goals conceded per game.
The form gap is stark. Alaves have won two and drawn one without losing, banking two clean sheets in the process, while Racing have lost narrowly to Getafe and needed a stoppage-time surge to beat Elche. Racing's home form offers some encouragement, but their defensive record raises doubts against a team scoring at will on the road.
Both sides are fully rested with 14 days between fixtures, removing fatigue as a factor. Racing's home advantage and attacking output keep this competitive, but Alaves' defensive solidity and superior points-per-game make them narrow favorites in reality despite bookmakers slightly favoring the hosts.
Expect a tight, entertaining contest with goals at both ends. Alaves' quality edge and momentum should be enough to nudge this one their way, though a draw remains firmly in play given both teams' tendency to share points.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 5 head-to-head matchups
These sides have met five times, though only one encounter falls within the last two years — a 1-1 draw...
These sides have met five times, though only one encounter falls within the last two years — a 1-1 draw in a August 2026 friendly. That result fits the broader head-to-head pattern: three of the five meetings ended level, with Alaves winning the other two. Racing have never beaten Alaves across these matchups. With such a small recent sample, this H2H record offers only a mild tiebreaker rather than a strong directional signal for Friday's league fixture.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
3 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
5.3/10
Racing Santander have picked up one win, one draw and one loss in their opening...
Racing Santander have picked up one win, one draw and one loss in their opening three league games, sitting 10th with four points. Their home form is their strongest asset — unbeaten in two at Estadio El Sardinero with a win over Elche and a draw against Villarreal — but they've conceded five goals already this season, exposing defensive fragility. Injuries to Pedro Felipe, A. Martin and I. Luque thin their options. Attacking output has been decent at 1.67 goals per game, and their front line will need to fire again to trouble a well-organized Alaves defense.
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.7/10
Alaves are unbeaten through three matches, winning two and drawing one, and currently sit fifth...
Alaves are unbeaten through three matches, winning two and drawing one, and currently sit fifth in La Liga with seven points. Their defense has been outstanding, conceding just once in three games and keeping two clean sheets, while maintaining a solid 1.67 goals scored per game themselves. Away form is unblemished too, drawing their only road trip so far. Suspension to F. Garces and injuries to T. Martinez and M. Rodriguez are notable absences to monitor, but the squad's overall balance and defensive discipline make them a tough away threat heading into Santander.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Racing Santander vs Alaves - Match Analysis
Home advantage and market sentiment likely explain Racing's slight favorite tag, but the underlying numbers favor Alaves. They're unbeaten in three, conceding just 0.33 goals per game compared to Racing's 1.67, and sit five places higher with a full point-per-game advantage. Racing's home comfort keeps this close, but Alaves arguably represent the smarter side of this line based on current form.
Over 2.5 Goals looks appealing given both teams' attacking tendencies and Racing's defensive vulnerabilities — combined goals per game sit at 3.34 this season. For bettors wanting safer exposure to Alaves' superior form without needing an outright win, Alaves Draw No Bet or Double Chance markets offer solid alternatives that hedge against a possible stalemate.
Form heavily favors Alaves, who are unbeaten in three league games with two clean sheets, while Racing have already dropped points in two of their three outings. This gap in points-per-game and defensive solidity is the core reason Alaves are given a real chance to win or at least avoid defeat, despite playing away from home.
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