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Estadio Mendizorrotza
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AI Predicted Winner
Alaves
51%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Alaves✦ AI Pick | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Marathonbet | |||
Pinnacle | |||
| Best Odds |
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Alaves vs Malaga prediction: this La Liga clash at Estadio Mendizorrotza pits a mid-table home side against the division's bottom club. Alaves sit seventh with 11 points, their form a mixed bag of three wins, two draws and three losses, though they remain unbeaten at home across three of five outings this season.
Malaga, rooted at 20th with just four points from eight games, have failed to win a single match all season. Their record of four draws and four losses, allied to a league-worst minus-nine goal difference, underlines a side short on cutting edge — they've scored only four goals in eight matches.
Both squads carry injury concerns, with Malaga particularly hit by multiple absences including defensive and midfield pieces. Alaves have a suspension and two injuries of their own, but their quality advantage remains clear across every statistical marker: points per game, goals scored, and goals conceded all favor the hosts significantly.
With a 13-place gap in the standings and Malaga winless all campaign, Alaves are deservedly favored by bookmakers. Expect the hosts to control possession and territory, though Malaga's habit of drawing nearly half their matches suggests they won't simply roll over. The pick here is a home win, but a draw remains a live alternative given Malaga's defensive resilience in stalemates this season.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 6 head-to-head matchups
These two haven't met in La Liga since 2018, with their most recent encounters coming in Segunda Division play. Alaves...
These two haven't met in La Liga since 2018, with their most recent encounters coming in Segunda Division play. Alaves won the 2023 meeting 2-1 at home, while Malaga claimed a 1-0 away victory in December 2022. The head-to-head is fairly even recently, though neither of those matches reflects the current gulf in form and quality between these two sides this season.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.3/10
Alaves have been inconsistent, with three wins, two draws and three defeats across their opening...
Alaves have been inconsistent, with three wins, two draws and three defeats across their opening eight league games, including a narrow 1-2 loss to Atletico Madrid last time out. Their home form stands out — three wins from five at Estadio Mendizorrotza — built on being hard to break down, with three clean sheets overall. The 5-2 win over Osasuna showed attacking firepower when it clicks. Suspension to F. Garces and injuries to M. Rodriguez and A. Perez thin the squad, but the underlying numbers (1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game) still support them as the stronger side here.
8 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
4/10
Malaga remain winless through eight league matches, managing four draws and four losses while sitting...
Malaga remain winless through eight league matches, managing four draws and four losses while sitting bottom of the table. Scoring just 0.5 goals per game and conceding 1.62, their underlying numbers are the division's worst, and they've failed to score in four of eight outings. A heavily depleted squad compounds the problem, with six players sidelined through injury or loan moves ahead of this fixture. Their away form is especially bleak — no wins, one draw and three losses on the road. Malaga's resilience in drawing matches offers their best route to a point, but a repeat of that pattern against a stronger Alaves side looks a tall order.
Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Alaves vs Malaga - Match Analysis
Alaves sit 13 places above Malaga with a far superior points-per-game rate and home record. Malaga remain winless all season, carry the league's worst goal difference, and travel with a lengthy injury list. Alaves' attacking output and defensive solidity at home, combined with Malaga's inability to win on the road, make the hosts clear favorites according to both the statistical model and bookmaker odds.
Draw No Bet: Alaves is the standout alternative, insuring against Malaga's frequent draws while still capturing value on the home win. Over 1.5 goals also has appeal given Alaves' home scoring record, though bettors should treat Over 2.5 Goals as higher risk since Malaga's defense tends to tighten up in matches they don't lose heavily.
It's unlikely but not impossible. Malaga have drawn four of eight league games, showing they can grind out results even while struggling to score. If they set up defensively and limit Alaves' chances, a draw is plausible — their combined draw rate with Alaves sits at 37.5%. However, their injury list and winless away record make an outright win a significant long shot.
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