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Estadio Mendizorrotza
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Alaves
47%
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Alaves vs Villarreal prediction: this La Liga opening-weeks clash pits an early pacesetter against an inconsistent Villarreal side still finding rhythm. Alaves sit top of the table after a 3-0 win over Getafe, having conceded nothing in their opening league fixture, while Villarreal opened with a 2-2 draw at Racing Santander that exposed defensive gaps.
Alaves carry strong momentum into this one, winning three of their last five competitive outings including a shutout of Getafe. Villarreal's underlying numbers are shakier, drawing 50% of their recent matches and shipping goals at a worrying rate in early fixtures. The suspension of one Alaves squad player and a knee injury to another are worth monitoring, but the hosts still boast the league's best goal difference through one round.
Head-to-head meetings between these two have been tight in recent seasons, with draws a recurring theme, though Villarreal have shown they can hurt Alaves on the road too. With Villarreal also juggling a midweek trip to Atletico Madrid before this fixture, fatigue could be a factor.
Given Alaves' home dominance, defensive solidity, and superior points-per-game, they hold a clear edge. Expect a competitive, cagey affair with goals at both ends, but Alaves' current form and table position make them the value pick to extend their unbeaten start at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Moderate
Strong
Unfavorable
Moderate
2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
These sides have met regularly in recent seasons, with results split fairly evenly. Their most recent meeting in March 2026...
These sides have met regularly in recent seasons, with results split fairly evenly. Their most recent meeting in March 2026 ended 1-1, while Villarreal claimed a 3-1 away win in January 2026. Draws have been a recurring theme in this fixture, appearing in two of the last three encounters. Villarreal have shown they're capable of scoring freely against Alaves, but the hosts have also found ways to frustrate them at Estadio Mendizorrotza in earlier meetings.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.3/10
Alaves have started the season perfectly, topping the table after a commanding 3-0 win over...
Alaves have started the season perfectly, topping the table after a commanding 3-0 win over Getafe with a clean sheet. That result followed a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano to close last season, and preseason friendlies showed a mix of solid defending and clinical finishing. Their goals-per-game rate of 3.0 and zero conceded through one match highlight a well-organized structure. Suspension for one squad player and a knee injury to another are minor concerns, but depth appears sufficient. Watch for continued defensive discipline as the key driver behind their unbeaten start and league-leading position.
8 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.3/10
Villarreal opened their league campaign with a 2-2 draw at Racing Santander, conceding twice despite...
Villarreal opened their league campaign with a 2-2 draw at Racing Santander, conceding twice despite scoring at the other end, a pattern that has followed them through preseason friendlies and cup fixtures with mixed results. They've shown attacking quality, including a 5-1 rout of Atletico Madrid last season, but defensive consistency remains a question mark with a 100% draw rate so far this term. A midweek trip to Atletico Madrid before this match adds fixture congestion. Their ability to score in bunches makes them dangerous, but leaky defending could be exploited by an in-form Alaves side.
No reported injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Alaves vs Villarreal - Match Analysis
Alaves enter this match as league leaders after a dominant 3-0 win with a clean sheet, while Villarreal have looked shaky defensively, drawing their opener 2-2. Alaves' points-per-game differential of +1.00 and home advantage at Estadio Mendizorrotza give them a clear statistical edge, even though recent meetings between these two have often been tight and draw-heavy.
Villarreal have shown they can score goals in bunches, as seen in their 5-1 win over Atletico Madrid last season, and their head-to-head record against Alaves includes a 3-1 away win earlier in 2026. However, a midweek trip to Atletico Madrid before this fixture and ongoing defensive issues make an upset less likely, though not impossible given their attacking quality.
Over 2.5 Goals looks appealing given both teams' attacking tendencies and Villarreal's defensive vulnerabilities, with combined goals per game at 5.0 this season. Draw No Bet: Alaves is also worth considering as a safer alternative to a straight moneyline bet, protecting against the draw risk that has appeared in recent meetings between these sides.
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