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Estadio Mendizorrotza
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
32%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Alaves | Draw✦ AI Pick | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Pinnacle | |||
William Hill | |||
| Best Odds |
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This Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction centers on a clear quality gap, though home advantage keeps things interesting at Estadio Mendizorrotza. Atletico arrive in excellent shape, sitting second with five wins from seven and a league-leading away record of two wins and a draw from three trips. Their 2.29 points-per-game average dwarfs Alaves's 1.57, and the attack has been firing with 16 goals scored.
Alaves, meanwhile, have cooled off after a promising start, losing two of their last three including a goalless draw away at Athletic Club. They've been excellent at home though, winning three of four, conceded just six goals all season, and have genuine defensive organization working in their favor.
Injuries complicate Alaves's task, with three players sidelined including a suspension, thinning an already stretched squad. Atletico are missing a couple of attacking pieces too, but their depth has carried them through, highlighted by a statement win over Real Madrid.
Expect goals given both sides' attacking tendencies this season, but Atletico's superior away form and overall quality should be enough to see them through. The bookmakers rightly make them favorites here, and the underlying numbers back that view, even if Alaves's strong home record offers a path to an upset or a share of the points.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
These sides have met twice within the last two years, both without a winner. Atletico drew 1-1 in Vitoria-Gasteiz in...
These sides have met twice within the last two years, both without a winner. Atletico drew 1-1 in Vitoria-Gasteiz in August 2025, then won 1-0 at home in January 2026. The pattern shows tight, competitive matches rather than one-sided affairs, even with Atletico's broader quality edge. Given Alaves's solid home form this season, another close contest looks likely, though Atletico's recent head-to-head win suggests they've found a way to handle this matchup.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.7/10
Alaves sit sixth with 11 points from seven games, their form dipping recently after a...
Alaves sit sixth with 11 points from seven games, their form dipping recently after a bright start. They've lost two of their last three league matches, including defeats to Valencia and Racing Santander, though they did grind out a goalless draw at Athletic Club last time out. Their home form remains a strength, winning three of four at Estadio Mendizorrotza with only four goals conceded. Injuries bite though, with three players out including a suspended regular. Keep an eye on their attacking output, which produced five goals against Osasuna but has otherwise been inconsistent against better opposition.
10 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
6.3/10
Atletico Madrid are flying, sitting second with 16 points and a win rate near 71%....
Atletico Madrid are flying, sitting second with 16 points and a win rate near 71%. They've won four of their last five, including statement victories over Osasuna, Real Sociedad, and Real Madrid, scoring 16 goals in seven matches. Their away form is particularly strong this season, unbeaten in two of three road trips with just one loss. Two injury absences to attacking players are a concern, but the squad depth has papered over those gaps so far. Their attacking balance and conversion rate make them a constant threat regardless of personnel changes.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid - Match Analysis
Atletico's points-per-game average of 2.29 far exceeds Alaves's 1.57, and their away form this season has been outstanding with just one loss in three road trips. They've also scored 16 goals in seven matches, nearly double Alaves's output. Bookmakers price them at 47.1% to win, reflecting a meaningful quality gap reinforced by recent wins over Real Sociedad and Real Madrid.
Alaves have been excellent at Estadio Mendizorrotza, winning three of four home matches and conceding only six goals there all season. Their recent head-to-head history against Atletico has produced tight, low-margin results including a 1-1 draw just last season. Home advantage and defensive organization give them a genuine chance to frustrate their higher-ranked visitors.
Over 2.5 Goals is an appealing alternative given both teams' attacking tendencies and a combined goals-per-game rate near 3.86 this season. Draw No Bet: Atletico Madrid also offers value, hedging against a repeat of their recent draw in this exact fixture while still backing the stronger side. Both markets reflect this matchup's likely competitive, goal-involved nature.
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