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Estadio Mendizorrotza
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AI Predicted Winner
Alaves
47%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Alaves✦ AI Pick | Draw | Valencia |
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Alaves vs Valencia prediction: this La Liga clash at Estadio Mendizorrotza pits the league's surprise package against its bottom club. Alaves sit second with 10 points from four games, unbeaten, having conceded just three goals. Valencia are rock bottom with a single point, one win in their last several attempts and a goal difference of minus eight.
The home side arrive off a 5-2 demolition of Osasuna and have won three of four home matches without conceding more than two. Valencia have scored just once in their last four league outings, shipping five to Barcelona and three to Deportivo, and their attacking numbers are among the worst in the division.
An injury-hit Valencia squad — missing several first-team players — travels with almost no attacking momentum, while Alaves have rested nine days and face only medium fixture congestion.
Expect Alaves to control this game from the front and extend their unbeaten start. With Valencia averaging just 0.25 goals per game and Alaves scoring 2.5 per match at home, the gulf in form and quality points firmly to a home win, likely accompanied by goals for the hosts and a probable clean sheet threat given Valencia's toothless attack this season.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The most recent meeting in March 2026 saw Valencia win 3-2 at home, but Alaves have otherwise held their own...
The most recent meeting in March 2026 saw Valencia win 3-2 at home, but Alaves have otherwise held their own in this fixture, including a scoreless draw in October 2025. Over the past two years, the head-to-head is fairly even with one win apiece and a draw. However, current form heavily favors Alaves, whose defensive solidity and Valencia's collapse in attacking output make historical patterns far less relevant here.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLa Liga matches highlighted
11 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
7/10
Alaves have been one of La Liga's early-season stories, winning three of four matches and...
Alaves have been one of La Liga's early-season stories, winning three of four matches and drawing the other, sitting second in the table with a plus-seven goal difference. Their 5-2 win over Osasuna and 1-0 victory over Villarreal highlight both firepower and defensive discipline, conceding under a goal per game. At home specifically, they've won all three matches this season. Injury concerns exist with Garces suspended and Martinez and Rodriguez sidelined, but squad depth has not been an issue so far. Their attacking balance, averaging 2.5 goals per game, makes them a genuine threat against a struggling Valencia backline.
8 of 15 in La Liga
Form Rating
4.3/10
Valencia have endured a miserable start, sitting rock bottom with just one point from four...
Valencia have endured a miserable start, sitting rock bottom with just one point from four matches and a single goal draw with Celta Vigo their only positive result. They've shipped nine goals while scoring only once, including a heavy 5-0 defeat to Barcelona. Their away form is winless, and a lengthy injury list — covering key defensive and attacking players — has compounded their struggles. With goals drying up completely in league play, confidence appears low, and there is little in recent performances to suggest an immediate turnaround against in-form opposition.
Showing 1-5 of 8 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Alaves vs Valencia - Match Analysis
Alaves sit second in La Liga with 10 points from four unbeaten matches, conceding just three goals all season. Valencia, by contrast, are bottom of the table with one point and have scored only once in their last four league games. The points-per-game gap of 2.25 in Alaves' favor, combined with home advantage and Valencia's injury-hit squad, makes the hosts clear favorites for this fixture.
Beyond the straight win market, Alaves -1 Asian Handicap suits this match given the scale of the quality gap, while Draw No Bet: Alaves offers protection against an unlikely draw. Given Valencia's inability to score, an Under 2.5 or Alaves clean sheet market could also offer value, reflecting Valencia's league-worst attacking output this season.
Alaves are chasing a place among La Liga's early-season surprises, with a win keeping them in touch with Barcelona at the top and consolidating Champions League qualification form. Valencia, sitting in the relegation zone with just one point, desperately need any result to stop the bleeding and build momentum before their situation becomes even more precarious heading into October.
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