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Phoenix Mercury W Arena
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AI Predicted Winner
Phoenix Mercury W
63%
#Confidence
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The Phoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W prediction for this July 8 WNBA contest tips off at Phoenix Mercury W Arena, where the Mercury have built a commanding home-court edge in recent meetings.
Phoenix enters with genuine momentum, having won 4 of their last 5 games including a dominant 90-67 home victory over Seattle Storm on July 3. With 4 full rest days since that game, fatigue is not a concern tonight. However, the Mercury face a congested schedule ahead — three games in the next seven days — so managing rotations will matter. Chicago arrives with 3 rest days after upsetting Las Vegas Aces 98-90 on July 4, showing they can compete on the road. The Sky carry a 7-15 record and have struggled for consistency, but their recent back-to-back wins over Portland Fire (124-94, 101-78) demonstrated offensive capability.
Injury concerns cloud both rosters. Phoenix is without J. Nogic (Out, 3 games missed) and has Brochant Noemie, N. Mack, and S. Ciezki all listed as Questionable. Chicago is missing M. Westbeld and S. Poffenbarger (both Out, 4 games missed) with R. Banham Questionable — a notable depth hit for the Sky.
Phoenix's superior home record, home-court advantage worth 2-3 points, and the head-to-head dominance at home make them the clear pick. Take the Mercury to cover at home. With both teams averaging around 85-90 points in recent outings, the Over on a moderate total looks appealing.
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Looking at head-to-head meetings from the last two seasons (2025-26 and 2025), Phoenix Mercury W have won both matchups played...
Looking at head-to-head meetings from the last two seasons (2025-26 and 2025), Phoenix Mercury W have won both matchups played at their home arena — 91-83 on May 16, 2026, and 108-104 on April 25, 2026. The home team has won every single meeting across the last 10 recorded contests between these sides. Phoenix holds a clear psychological and structural edge in this rivalry, particularly on their own floor, making them a reliable pick whenever they host Chicago.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsNBA W matches highlighted
15 of 15 in NBA W
Form Rating
4/10
Phoenix Mercury W sit at 9-13 overall but have found form recently, winning 4 of...
Phoenix Mercury W sit at 9-13 overall but have found form recently, winning 4 of their last 5 games. Their most impressive result was a 90-67 blowout of Seattle Storm at home on July 3, and they also posted a road win at Indiana Fever 111-109 in a tight contest. At home, Phoenix averages 89.9 points scored versus 91.8 conceded — competitive numbers. The injury report is a concern with J. Nogic out and three players Questionable, but the Mercury's recent momentum and home comfort give them a clear edge entering this matchup.
15 of 15 in NBA W
Form Rating
2.7/10
Chicago Sky W hold a 7-15 record and have been inconsistent, but they arrive with...
Chicago Sky W hold a 7-15 record and have been inconsistent, but they arrive with some confidence after beating Las Vegas Aces 98-90 on the road July 4. Prior to that, they swept Portland Fire at home with scores of 124-94 and 101-78, showing genuine offensive firepower when clicking. However, the Sky have lost 15 games this season and struggle away from home (4-7 on the road). The absence of M. Westbeld and S. Poffenbarger — both out for 4 games — hurts their depth considerably. Chicago's road scoring average of 85.4 points will be tested against a motivated Phoenix side.
2026 Season
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Phoenix Mercury W vs Chicago Sky W - Match Analysis
Yes, Phoenix is the recommended spread pick. The Mercury have won both 2026 meetings against Chicago at home — by 8 and 4 points respectively — and enter this game with 4 rest days and strong recent form (4 wins in last 5). Chicago's road record is 4-7 and they're missing two key rotation players in M. Westbeld and S. Poffenbarger. Home court in the WNBA is worth 2-3 points, and Phoenix's momentum makes them a solid spread play at medium-high confidence.
The Over looks appealing if the line is set in the 170-175 range. Chicago has been scoring at a high clip lately — 98, 124, and 101 in their last three games — while Phoenix has hit 90 and 111 in their last two. Both teams average around 85-90 points per game in recent form, suggesting a combined total well above 170. Neither defense has been elite this season, and the pace of recent matchups between these sides supports an Over play at roughly 60-62% confidence.
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Chicago's injury situation is a meaningful concern. M. Westbeld and S. Poffenbarger are both listed as Out and have each missed 4 games, representing a real depth hit for a team already sitting at 7-15. R. Banham is also Questionable. Losing two rotation contributors on the road against a team in form significantly limits Chicago's margin for error. The Sky will need strong performances from S. Diggins-Smith, C. Vandersloot, and K. Cardoso to stay competitive, making a Chicago outright win a lower-probability outcome.
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