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Turkey
Turkey6th in Nations League (6-3)
VS
Ukraine
Ukraine5th in Nations League (6-4)

Turkey vs Ukraine

Friday, Jul 17, 2026 · --:--

Final
Turkey
3–2
Ukraine

Turkey won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Turkey faces Ukraine in a Nations League clash between two evenly matched sides that have both recorded 5 wins and 3 losses from their opening 8 matches. Ukraine holds the edge in the standings, sitting 4th with 16 points compared to Turkey's 7th-place position on 14 points, and their superior points-per-game ratio (2.00 vs 1.75) makes them a narrow favourite heading into this contest.

Turkey's recent Nations League form has been competitive — wins over Belgium (3-0), Argentina (3-2), China (3-0), and Canada (3-2) are offset by defeats to Poland and Italy. Notably, Turkey has performed better away from their designated base, winning 3 of 4 away fixtures compared to 2 wins from 4 at home. Ukraine arrives on the back of a strong mid-tournament run, sweeping Italy and defeating Brazil and Canada in consecutive matches, before dropping their final group-stage game to Bulgaria 1-3.

The head-to-head record within the last two years shows Ukraine winning 3-0 when these sides met in the 2025 Nations League, giving the Ukrainians a psychological edge. Both teams enter with identical rest periods of roughly 19 days and face congested upcoming schedules, so fatigue is not a differentiating factor here.

With Ukraine's stronger standing, better set differential (+6 vs +5), and recent H2H dominance, they are the recommended pick. Expect a competitive match that could extend to four or five sets given how closely matched these teams are.

Key Factors

Last 3 head-to-head matchups

Turkey (2)Ukraine (1)
Jun 26, 25
(H)Turkey0 - 3Ukraine(A)
A
Jul 29, 23
(H)Turkey3 - 2Ukraine(A)
H
May 28, 17
(H)Ukraine0 - 3Turkey(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Only one meeting falls within the two-year window: the 2025 Nations League encounter where Ukraine defeated Turkey 3-0, demonstrating clear...

Only one meeting falls within the two-year window: the 2025 Nations League encounter where Ukraine defeated Turkey 3-0, demonstrating clear dominance in that contest. The older 2023 Challenger Cup result (Turkey 3-2) and a 2017 World Championship result fall outside the relevant timeframe and carry limited predictive weight. Based on the recent record, Ukraine holds the head-to-head advantage and will look to replicate that commanding performance.

Last 13 matches across all competitionsNations League matches highlighted

Turkey

8 of 13 in Nations League

W
W
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
W

Form Rating

6.9/10

Turkey Form Analysis

Trending

Turkey have posted a 5-3 record across 8 Nations League matches, accumulating 14 points and...

Turkey have posted a 5-3 record across 8 Nations League matches, accumulating 14 points and sitting 7th in the standings with a set differential of +5. Their campaign includes convincing sweeps of Belgium and China, plus hard-fought wins over Argentina (3-2) and Canada (3-2), showing resilience in close matches. However, they have been swept by both Italy and USA, revealing vulnerability against top-tier opposition. Their away record (3 wins from 4) has actually outperformed their home record (2 wins from 4), suggesting they compete well regardless of designation.

Ukraine

8 of 11 in Nations League

L
W
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
L

Form Rating

5.5/10

Ukraine Form Analysis

Analysis

Ukraine sit 4th in the Nations League standings with 16 points from 8 matches, boasting...

Ukraine sit 4th in the Nations League standings with 16 points from 8 matches, boasting a 5-3 record and a set differential of +6. Their strongest stretch came in late June, when they swept Italy 3-0 and defeated Brazil 3-1 and Canada 3-1 in three consecutive matches. They have conceded fewer sets per match than Turkey on average, reflecting a tighter defensive structure. Their two losses — to Japan (0-3) and Poland (2-3) — came against top-five sides, while their defeat to Bulgaria (1-3) in the final group match is a minor concern heading into this fixture.

Season Overview

2026 Season

Record
Turkey5-362.5%
Ukraine5-362.5%
Sets Won
Turkey2.3
Ukraine2.3
Sets Lost
Turkey1.6
Ukraine1.5
info

No injury information available for volleyball

Player availability isn't provided by our data source for this sport.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Unfavorable

Injury Impact

Low

Set Differential
Turkey+0.6
Ukraine+0.8

Turkey vs Ukraine - Match Analysis

Will Ukraine win this Nations League match against Turkey?

Ukraine are the narrow favourites based on their 4th-place standing (16 points) compared to Turkey's 7th (14 points), a superior points-per-game ratio, and a 3-0 victory over Turkey in the 2025 Nations League. Their mid-tournament form — three consecutive wins including a sweep of Italy — is encouraging. However, Turkey are competitive and have shown they can win tight matches, so this is far from a certainty. Ukraine win is the recommended volleyball pick, but expect a tough contest.

Should I take Ukraine -1.5 sets in this match?

Ukraine -1.5 sets requires a 3-0 or 3-1 victory, which is possible but carries significant risk given how evenly matched these teams are. Turkey have won two of their five matches by 3-2 scorelines, demonstrating they can push opponents to five sets. While Ukraine swept Turkey 3-0 in their 2025 Nations League meeting, replicating that margin is not guaranteed. The set handicap is a higher-risk option — the match winner market on Ukraine offers better value without the added requirement of a dominant winning margin.

Will this Turkey vs Ukraine match go over 3.5 sets?

Over 3.5 sets is a compelling angle for this fixture. Both teams have demonstrated they play competitive, extended matches — Turkey secured two of their wins by 3-2 scorelines, and Ukraine's losses to Poland and Japan also went to multiple sets. With nearly identical statistical profiles and only a slim points gap separating them in the standings, a four or five-set match is a realistic outcome. The over 3.5 sets market suits this evenly contested matchup and represents solid value for volleyball betting tips.

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