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Latvia
Latvia4th in World Championship (1-1)
VS
Finland
Finland1st in World Championship (3-0)

Latvia vs Finland

Thursday, May 21, 2026 · --:--

Final
Latvia
1–7
Finland

Finland won

Our prediction was correct
✓

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Latvia faces Finland in a crucial World Championship clash that could determine quarter-final positioning. Finland enters as the tournament's joint-leaders with a perfect 3-0 record, averaging 4.33 goals per game while conceding just 1.33. Their dominant form includes a commanding 6-2 victory over USA in their most recent outing, showcasing the offensive firepower that has made them early favorites.

Latvia sits fourth in Group A with 3 points from 2 games, having split their opening fixtures with a 2-4 loss to Switzerland followed by a solid 2-0 win over Germany. The Latvians have shown resilience in recent friendlies, including a notable 2-1 victory over Finland just last month that will give them confidence.

The schedule situation slightly favors Latvia with an extra day of rest (3 days vs 2), though both teams are managing high fixture congestion with back-to-back games looming. Finland's superior goal differential (+9 vs 0) and perfect tournament record make them heavy favorites, but Latvia's recent head-to-head success and quarter-final aspirations could keep this competitive.

Expect Finland's offensive depth to prove decisive against a Latvian side that has conceded 2 goals per game in the tournament. The Finns' defensive solidity and tournament momentum should secure a comfortable victory, making Finland -1.5 on the puck line the primary recommendation.

Key Factors

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Latvia (2)Finland (8)
Apr 22, 26
(H)Finland1 - 2Latvia(A)
A
May 17, 25
(H)Finland2 - 1Latvia(A)
H
Apr 10, 25
(H)Latvia1 - 4Finland(A)
A
Apr 9, 25
(H)Latvia3 - 2Finland(A)
H
Apr 11, 24
(H)Latvia2 - 3Finland(A)
A
Apr 10, 24
(H)Latvia2 - 3Finland(A)
A
May 14, 22
(H)Latvia1 - 2Finland(A)
A
Feb 11, 22
(H)Latvia1 - 3Finland(A)
A
May 30, 21
(H)Finland3 - 2Latvia(A)
H
May 6, 18
(H)Latvia1 - 8Finland(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent meetings between these nations have been closely contested, with Latvia claiming a surprising 2-1 victory over Finland in a...

Recent meetings between these nations have been closely contested, with Latvia claiming a surprising 2-1 victory over Finland in a friendly just last month. However, Finland holds the edge in competitive fixtures, including a 2-1 World Championship win in 2025. The last 6 encounters have averaged 2.8 goals per game, with Finland winning 4 of those meetings. Latvia's ability to trouble Finland in recent friendlies suggests they can stay competitive, but Finland's superior tournament form and depth should prove decisive in this crucial group stage encounter.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsWorld Championship matches highlighted

Latvia

2 of 15 in World Championship

W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
W

Form Rating

6/10

Latvia Form Analysis

Trending

Latvia has shown mixed form in the tournament with 1 win and 1 loss from...

Latvia has shown mixed form in the tournament with 1 win and 1 loss from their opening 2 games. Their 2-0 victory over Germany demonstrated defensive solidity and clinical finishing, while the 4-2 defeat to Switzerland exposed some vulnerabilities against high-quality opposition. The Latvians are averaging exactly 2 goals scored and conceded per game in the tournament. Their recent friendly form has been encouraging, including victories over Norway and that notable win over Finland. With 3 days of rest since their last game, Latvia should be physically fresh despite the upcoming fixture congestion. Their quarter-final hopes remain alive, sitting in 4th place with 3 points.

Finland

3 of 15 in World Championship

W
W
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
W

Form Rating

6.7/10

Finland Form Analysis

Analysis

Finland has been the tournament's standout performer with a perfect 3-0 record and an impressive...

Finland has been the tournament's standout performer with a perfect 3-0 record and an impressive +9 goal differential. Their offensive output has been exceptional, averaging 4.33 goals per game while maintaining defensive discipline by conceding just 1.33 per contest. The 6-2 demolition of USA showcased their attacking depth and clinical finishing. Finland's tournament victories include comfortable wins over Germany (3-1) and Hungary (4-1), demonstrating consistency against varying opposition styles. With 2 days of rest since their last game, they face medium fatigue risk but their squad depth should handle the workload. Currently joint-top of Group A with 9 points, Finland has already secured quarter-final qualification and can play with confidence.

Season Overview

2027 Season

Record
Latvia1-150.0%
Finland3-0100.0%
Goals For
Latvia2.0
Finland4.3
Goals Against
Latvia2.0
Finland1.3
info

No injury information available for hockey

Player availability isn't provided by our data source for this sport.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Strong

H2H Record

Favorable

Injury Impact

Low

Goal Differential
Latvia0.0
Finland+3.0

Latvia vs Finland - Match Analysis

Should I take Finland on the -1.5 puck line?

Yes, Finland -1.5 offers strong value given their tournament dominance. They've won all 3 games by 2+ goals, averaging 4.33 goals while conceding just 1.33. Latvia has struggled defensively, conceding 2 goals per game, and Finland's superior depth and offensive firepower should produce a comfortable victory. The Finns have the motivation to maintain their perfect record and secure top seeding for the quarter-finals.

Will this game go over or under 5.5 goals?

The Under 5.5 goals presents value despite Finland's high-scoring form. Latvia's conservative approach has seen their games average exactly 4 goals, while Finland's defensive discipline has kept opponents to 1.33 goals per game. Tournament hockey often features tighter checking and more structured play than friendlies. With both teams managing fixture congestion, expect a more measured pace that favors the under in total goals.

Can Latvia pull off an upset against Finland?

While Latvia's recent 2-1 friendly victory over Finland shows they can compete, an upset appears unlikely given the tournament context. Finland's perfect 3-0 record, superior goal differential (+9 vs 0), and deeper squad make them heavy favorites. Latvia needs points for quarter-final qualification, but Finland's consistency and offensive firepower should prove too much. Latvia's best hope is keeping the margin respectable rather than securing a shock victory.

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