AI vs Market Probabilities

• Rögle
  62%
• Draw
  0%
• Vaxjo
  38%

Analysis

The puck line analysis favors Rögle based on their superior home ice advantage and recent offensive surge. With both teams enjoying optimal rest advantage, the key differentiator becomes venue impact. Rögle's 61.9% home win rate and 3.19 goals per game average at home significantly outweighs Vaxjo's 50% road record. The hosts' defensive stability (2.14 goals against at home) provides the foundation for controlling this matchup. While Vaxjo holds the recent head-to-head edge, Rögle's home dominance and current form suggest they can reverse that trend. The fresh legs from extended rest should benefit both teams' offensive systems, but home ice advantage proves decisive in this evenly-matched contest.

Recommendations

The primary value bet centers on Rögle's puck line at home, where their superior offensive output and defensive structure create positive expected value. Their 3.19 goals per game at home versus Vaxjo's 2.85 goals allowed on the road suggests scoring opportunities. The goaltender matchup favors the rested home netminder who has been excellent at Rögle Arena this season. Vaxjo's road inconsistencies (50% win rate) provide additional value for backing the hosts. The over 5.5 goals also presents value given both teams' recent offensive form and the likelihood of an open, entertaining game. Rögle's -1.5 puck line offers the strongest value proposition, combining home advantage with superior recent form and venue-specific performance metrics.

Half-Time Result Prediction

• Rögle

  Likely

• Draw

  Common

• Vaxjo

  Possible

Other Markets

• Draw No Bet
• Asian Handicap
• First Goal Time
• Corners O/U

Analysis

Consider the first period over 1.5 goals given both teams' tendency to start games aggressively after extended rest. Rögle's strong first period scoring at home makes this attractive. The total goals market leans toward the over, as both teams should be sharp offensively after the week off. If seeking upset potential, Vaxjo's recent head-to-head success provides some value on the moneyline, though their road struggles make this risky. Alternative puck line options include Rögle -0.5 in regulation for safer exposure to their home dominance.