AI vs Market Probabilities

• Rögle
  65%
• Draw
  0%
• Timrå
  35%

Analysis

Our puck line analysis favors Rögle based on several key factors. The rest advantage is minimal between teams, but Rögle's superior home record (61.1% vs Timrå's 26.3% road record) creates a significant edge. The head-to-head dominance with 4 wins in 6 recent meetings supports the home team, despite their recent poor form. Rögle's home offensive output of 3.17 goals per game should exploit Timrå's road defensive weaknesses (3.53 goals against per game). While Timrå showed they can beat Rögle with their 4-1 victory, that was at home where they're much stronger. The venue change to Rögle Arena shifts the dynamics considerably in favor of the hosts.

Recommendations

The value bet lies with Rögle on the puck line, as their home dominance against Timrå's poor road form creates favorable odds. Rögle's -1.5 puck line offers solid value given their historical tendency to win comfortably at home against this opponent. The goaltender matchup should favor Rögle, whose home defensive record (2.28 goals against) is significantly better than Timrå's road offensive output. Consider backing Rögle -1.5 as the primary value bet, with the total staying under 6.5 goals as a secondary option. Timrå's road struggles and Rögle's home defensive strength suggest a lower-scoring affair where the home team controls proceedings. The extended rest for both teams may lead to tighter defensive play early.

Half-Time Result Prediction

• Rögle

  Likely

• Draw

  Common

• Timrå

  Possible

Other Markets

• Draw No Bet
• Asian Handicap
• First Goal Time
• Corners O/U

Analysis

First period betting offers intriguing alternatives, with Rögle's strong home starts making the first period winner an attractive option. The total goals market leans toward the under, given both teams' recent defensive improvements and the extended rest period potentially leading to cautious early play. Rögle team total over 2.5 goals provides value considering their 3.17 goals per game average at home. If seeking upset potential, Timrå +1.5 on the puck line offers coverage for a close game, though their road record suggests limited upside. Period betting favors Rögle in all three periods based on their home ice advantage.