AI vs Market Probabilities

• Luleå
  68%
• Draw
  0%
• Orebro
  32%

Analysis

The rest advantage is neutralized with both teams having 7 days off, making form and venue the deciding factors. Luleå's superior home record (52.6% vs Orebro's 26.3% road win rate) creates a significant edge. Puck line analysis reveals Luleå's home scoring average (2.84 goals) against Orebro's poor road defense (3.42 goals allowed) suggests a multi-goal victory is likely. The head-to-head dominance (7 of 10 wins) and recent 3-1 home victory over this same opponent provide additional confidence. Home ice advantage in the SHL typically adds 0.3-0.4 goals to the expected margin, making the -1.5 puck line attractive at these odds.

Recommendations

The primary value bet lies in Luleå -1.5 on the puck line, as their home dominance against Orebro's road struggles creates favorable conditions for a multi-goal victory. The goaltender matchup heavily favors the home team, with Luleå's home defensive numbers (2.37 goals against) significantly better than Orebro's road offensive output (2.68 goals for). Historical precedent supports this pick - Luleå has won by 2+ goals in 4 of their last 6 home meetings with Orebro. The Over 5.5 total goals also presents value, as these teams have combined for 6+ goals in 6 of their last 8 meetings, with both sides capable of offensive production despite Orebro's defensive issues.

Half-Time Result Prediction

• Luleå

  Likely

• Draw

  Common

• Orebro

  Possible

Other Markets

• Draw No Bet
• Asian Handicap
• First Goal Time
• Corners O/U

Analysis

Consider the first period Under 1.5 goals as both teams may start cautiously after the long break. Luleå's strong third period scoring (evident in recent games) makes them attractive for period-specific bets. The total goals market offers flexibility - if concerned about a defensive battle, Under 5.5 provides safety, while Over 6.5 captures the potential for another high-scoring affair like their previous 6-5 and 5-4 encounters. Team totals favor Luleå Over 2.5 goals given their home scoring average and Orebro's road defensive struggles.