AI vs Market Probabilities

• Leksand
  55%
• Draw
  0%
• Timrå
  45%

Analysis

The rest advantage is neutral with both teams well-rested, making home ice advantage the primary factor. Leksand's dramatic home/away split (38.1% vs 15.8% win rate) combined with Timrå's road struggles (23.8% win rate) creates a clear edge for the hosts. Puck line analysis favors Leksand +1.5 as the safer play, given their improved defensive performance at home and Timrå's tendency to struggle away from their arena. The recent head-to-head dominance by Timrå is concerning, but playing at Leksand Arena should level the playing field in this crucial SHL encounter.

Recommendations

The value bet lies in Leksand's home strength against Timrå's road weaknesses. Leksand +1.5 on the puck line offers excellent value given their home defensive improvement and Timrå's away scoring struggles. The goaltender matchup should favor the rested home team, as both teams have had time to prepare their top netminders. Under 5.5 goals presents additional value, considering Leksand's tighter defensive play at home (2.86 goals against) and Timrå's reduced road scoring (2.19 per game). Despite the high-scoring head-to-head history, the venue and form suggest a more defensive affair.

Half-Time Result Prediction

• Leksand

  Likely

• Draw

  Common

• Timrå

  Possible

Other Markets

• Draw No Bet
• Asian Handicap
• First Goal Time
• Corners O/U

Analysis

First period under 1.5 goals offers strong value as both teams typically start conservatively after extended rest periods. Leksand team total over 2.5 goals is worth considering given their improved home scoring average of 2.38 per game. The total goals market leans toward under 5.5, as road teams in the SHL often struggle to maintain offensive rhythm away from home, particularly against defensively improved home sides.