AI vs Market Probabilities

• Utah Mammoth
  65%
• Draw
  0%
• Dallas Stars
  35%

Analysis

The rest advantage heavily favors Utah in this matchup. Dallas playing on zero days rest after a shootout creates critical fatigue risk, while Utah's 2-day break provides a significant physical edge. Puck line analysis shows Utah's home dominance (60.7% win rate) against a Dallas team that has been defensively vulnerable lately. The Mammoth's ability to score 3+ goals consistently at home, combined with Dallas's recent struggles allowing goals, creates value on the home side. Schedule situations like this historically favor the rested home team by approximately 0.3-0.5 goals in expected value.

Recommendations

The value bet lies with Utah on the puck line, as their rest advantage and home ice dominance create positive expected value. The goaltender matchup likely favors Utah if Dallas starts their backup due to the back-to-back situation. Utah -1.5 offers strong value given their recent home scoring (4+ goals in 6 of last 10) and Dallas's defensive struggles. The total also presents Under value, as back-to-back games typically see reduced offensive output from the tired team. Utah's home defensive improvement (2.75 GAA) combined with potential Dallas fatigue suggests a lower-scoring affair than the market expects.

Half-Time Result Prediction

• Utah Mammoth

  Likely

• Draw

  Common

• Dallas Stars

  Possible

Other Markets

• Draw No Bet
• Asian Handicap
• First Goal Time
• Corners O/U

Analysis

Consider the first period Under 1.5 goals, as Dallas often starts slowly on back-to-backs while Utah may take time to capitalize on their rest advantage. The total goals Under 6.5 presents value given Dallas's likely reduced offensive output due to fatigue. Utah team total Over 3.5 goals offers appeal based on their home scoring consistency and Dallas's recent defensive vulnerabilities. Alternative puck line options include Utah -0.5 in regulation for safer exposure to their rest advantage.