Prediction Model Formula
- Form Weight: 35%
- H2H Factor: 20%
- xG Analysis: 25%
- Venue Boost: 20%
AI vs Market Probabilities
- Tampa Bay Lightning65%
- Draw0%
- Boston Bruins35%
Analysis
Puck line analysis favors Tampa Bay based on superior home form and recent head-to-head dominance. The Lightning's rest advantage equals Boston's, eliminating schedule factors while emphasizing home ice importance. Tampa Bay's 8-2 recent record combined with Boston's road vulnerabilities creates clear value. The goaltender matchup benefits the home team's familiar environment. Recent offensive consistency from Tampa Bay suggests they can cover the -1.5 puck line against Boston's porous road defense. Historical high-scoring meetings support over total consideration.


