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Colombia won
Colombia enter their 2026 World Cup group stage clash against Congo DR on June 24 as clear favorites, and the underlying numbers back that status convincingly. Bookmaker consensus places Colombia's win probability at 61.6%, a figure that aligns closely with the advanced metrics shaping this matchup.
The xG data tells a straightforward story. Colombia are generating 1.6 expected goals compared to Congo DR's 0.9, and their clinical finishing has already seen them outperform that figure in recent output. Meanwhile, Colombia's xG conceded of 1.2 versus Congo DR's tighter 0.7 suggests the African side will face sustained pressure but may struggle to convert the chances they do create.
No confirmed lineup disruptions or tactical shifts have emerged for either side ahead of kickoff at Estadio Akron, where mild weather conditions level the playing field. That stability reinforces the pre-match picture rather than introducing uncertainty, keeping Colombia's structural advantages intact heading into the contest.
With a 24% draw probability and only 15% for a Congo DR win, the value case for Colombia is reasonably clear. Bettors looking at this fixture should note that Colombia's combination of chance quality and clinical finishing makes them a credible selection not just to win, but to do so with a degree of control. The medium confidence rating reflects normal World Cup unpredictability rather than any specific concern about Colombia's readiness.
2026 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
Last 15 matches across all competitionsWorld Cup matches highlighted
1 of 15 in World Cup
Form Rating
6.7/10
Colombia have been in excellent form heading into this tournament. Their opening World Cup win...
Colombia have been in excellent form heading into this tournament. Their opening World Cup win over Uzbekistan — a 3-1 victory — demonstrated attacking fluency and composure under pressure. Prior to the tournament, they won three consecutive friendlies against Jordan, Costa Rica, and Australia, scoring eight goals across those matches. Their South American qualifying campaign also showed resilience, including a stunning 6-3 away win over Venezuela. The main concern is defensive vulnerability — they conceded in their tournament opener and have shipped goals in several recent outings. Their attacking threat, however, remains a genuine weapon.
1 of 15 in World Cup
Form Rating
7/10
Congo DR arrive at this match with one point from their opening draw against Portugal...
Congo DR arrive at this match with one point from their opening draw against Portugal — a creditable result that showed defensive organization and fighting spirit. Their recent form is mixed: a pre-tournament loss to Chile and a draw with Denmark, but solid African qualifying results including wins over Cameroon, Sudan, and Togo. The Leopards are a disciplined, hard-working side that can be difficult to break down. However, their attacking output is modest — averaging one goal per game in this tournament — and they face a significant step up in quality against Colombia's fluid attacking unit.
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Colombia vs Congo DR - Match Analysis
Colombia's advantage stems from multiple converging factors. They top Group K with three points, scored three goals in their opening win, and carry a squad packed with South American quality honed through a demanding qualification campaign. Bookmakers price them at 62.9% — reflecting a clear gap in squad depth and attacking firepower. Congo DR, while disciplined, have managed just one goal in their tournament opener and face a significant step up in opposition quality.
Draw No Bet: Colombia is the top alternative pick, covering both a Colombia win and a draw scenario — giving roughly 86% probability coverage. For higher-risk, higher-reward options, Colombia to score over 1.5 goals suits their attacking output of three goals in their opener. Both Teams to Score is also worth considering given Congo DR's willingness to attack when needing points, though their modest scoring rate tempers confidence in that market.
Colombia sit top of Group K with three points and a win here would virtually guarantee their place in the Round of 32 with a game to spare. Congo DR are in a more urgent position — on one point after their draw with Portugal, they need at least a draw to stay in contention heading into the final group game against Uzbekistan. A loss would leave them needing a win in their final match while hoping other results go their way.
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