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San Marino Stadium
Albania won
San Marino vs Albania prediction: this UEFA Nations League League C clash pits the tournament's perennial minnows against a side eyeing promotion. San Marino have lost virtually every competitive fixture in recent memory, including a 0-7 hammering by Finland just days ago, while Albania opened this campaign with a clean-sheet win over Belarus.
San Marino's form is as bleak as it gets domestically and internationally — no wins, no draws, and a goal difference of -7 from their sole Nations League outing. They've failed to score in their last competitive game and conceded seven, continuing a pattern of heavy defeats against nearly every opponent they face, minnow or superpower alike.
Albania, by contrast, sit second in League C Group A with a perfect record, a clean sheet against Belarus, and momentum after strong World Cup qualifying form that included wins over Serbia and Latvia. Their attacking players will fancy a big return against a San Marino defense shipping goals for fun.
Bookmakers price Albania as overwhelming favorites near 91% implied probability, and nothing in the underlying data challenges that. Expect Albania to control possession, create numerous chances, and win comfortably, with the main uncertainty being the margin rather than the outcome itself.
Moderate
Weak
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2026 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
San Marino vs Albania - Match Analysis
Albania sit second in their Nations League group with a perfect record and a clean sheet in their opener, while San Marino have lost every competitive fixture in recent memory, including a 0-7 defeat to Finland. The gulf in quality, squad depth, and recent scorelines all point firmly toward an Albania win, reflected in bookmaker odds implying over 90% probability for the visitors.
Given the lopsided nature of this fixture, Over 2.5 Goals and Albania Asian Handicap markets offer better value than the near-unbackable moneyline price on Albania. San Marino's defense has been breached repeatedly this year, making goal-heavy markets and handicap lines like Albania -1.5 or -2 more attractive than a straight win bet at minimal odds.
It's highly unlikely based on the data available. San Marino have failed to score in their most recent match and conceded seven goals, showing no defensive resilience or attacking threat. Historically they've lost both recent meetings with Albania by a combined 7-0 scoreline, and nothing in their current form suggests they can keep this one close.
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Last 3 head-to-head matchups
The two sides have met twice in the last five years, both in World Cup qualifying, with Albania winning both...
The two sides have met twice in the last five years, both in World Cup qualifying, with Albania winning both — 5-0 at home in September 2021 and 2-0 away in San Marino in March 2021. Albania have outscored San Marino 7-0 across those two meetings, underlining a dominant historical pattern that shows no signs of reversing given the current gulf in quality between these nations.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsUEFA Nations League matches highlighted
1 of 15 in UEFA Nations League
Form Rating
0.3/10
San Marino's form could hardly be worse — their only Nations League game this campaign...
San Marino's form could hardly be worse — their only Nations League game this campaign ended in a 0-7 rout by Finland, extending a run of heavy defeats stretching back through World Cup qualifying, including a 0-10 loss to Austria and 0-7 to Romania. They've failed to keep a clean sheet and rarely troubled opposing goalkeepers, scoring just once in their last five outings. Playing at home offers little cushion, as their sole home match this season ended in a heavy loss. With a squad drawn from part-time players, there's no standout attacking threat to watch, and the concern is purely about damage limitation against a much stronger Albania side.
1 of 15 in UEFA Nations League
Form Rating
5.3/10
Albania opened this Nations League campaign with a comfortable 2-0 home win over Belarus, keeping...
Albania opened this Nations League campaign with a comfortable 2-0 home win over Belarus, keeping a clean sheet and continuing the defensive solidity that underpinned their World Cup qualifying campaign, where they beat Serbia and Latvia. They sit second in their group with a maximum three points from one game and a healthy +2 goal difference already. Albania have shown they can grind out narrow wins against weaker opposition and occasionally find bigger scorelines, as seen in a 4-2 friendly win over Jordan. No major fitness concerns are evident from the available data, and their balanced record suggests confidence heading into this away fixture.
