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Sheriff Arena
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Sheriff Tiraspol
63%
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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Aluminij prediction: Moldova's dominant club opens their UEFA Europa League qualifying campaign at home against Slovenian side Aluminij in the 1st Qualifying Round. The Sheriff Arena has long been a fortress, and this first leg represents a significant opportunity for the Moldovan champions to establish control of the tie.
Sheriff arrive in strong domestic form, winning four of their last five competitive matches and keeping clean sheets in the majority of those victories. Their attacking output has been consistent throughout the spring, and home advantage at the Sheriff Arena — one of the best-equipped stadiums in the region — adds meaningful weight to their prospects.
Aluminij, by contrast, enter this tie in poor shape. The Slovenian side finished their domestic season with a string of defeats, losing four of their final five league matches, including a 5-0 hammering by Celje. Their pre-season friendlies have offered little reassurance, with a loss to FC Noah and two draws against modest opposition. The quality gap between these clubs appears substantial.
With no head-to-head history between these sides and no formal league statistics available for this new season, the analysis leans on recent form and the clear competitive level differential. Sheriff are the stronger, better-prepared team playing at home in a high-stakes European qualifier. A comfortable home win is the most likely outcome, with Sheriff expected to control possession and create the cleaner chances.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsUEFA Europa League matches highlighted
0 of 15 in UEFA Europa League
Form Rating
8/10
Sheriff Tiraspol have been in excellent form heading into this qualifier. Their most recent competitive...
Sheriff Tiraspol have been in excellent form heading into this qualifier. Their most recent competitive outing was a commanding 3-0 home win over Sirețbi in the Moldovan Super Liga on June 28, and they have won four of their last five matches across all competitions. Their defensive record is particularly impressive — they have kept clean sheets in the majority of recent outings, conceding just one goal in their last six competitive games. Sheriff's home record is especially strong, with multiple dominant victories at the Sheriff Arena. They enter this European tie well-rested with 11 days since their last match and low fatigue risk, giving the squad ample preparation time for this qualifying opener.
0 of 15 in UEFA Europa League
Form Rating
3.7/10
Aluminij arrive in Tiraspol in worrying form. The Slovenian side endured a difficult end to...
Aluminij arrive in Tiraspol in worrying form. The Slovenian side endured a difficult end to their domestic season, losing four of their final five 1. SNL matches, including a 5-0 thrashing at Celje and a 3-0 defeat at Maribor. Their pre-season has done little to inspire confidence — a 2-0 loss to FC Noah in their most recent friendly, sandwiched between two draws against lower-level opposition. Aluminij have struggled to score consistently and their defensive frailties were exposed repeatedly in the spring. Travelling to face a well-organised, European-experienced Sheriff side at the Sheriff Arena represents a significant step up in quality. Their attacking threat looks limited based on recent evidence.
2026 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Aluminij - Match Analysis
Sheriff Tiraspol hold a clear advantage across every key metric. They are Moldova's dominant club with genuine European pedigree, having previously competed in the UEFA Champions League group stage. They arrive in strong form, winning four of their last five competitive matches with an outstanding defensive record. Aluminij, meanwhile, finished their Slovenian season with four defeats in five games and have shown little in pre-season. Playing at home at the Sheriff Arena makes the hosts even more formidable in this first leg.
Draw No Bet: Sheriff Tiraspol is the safest alternative, removing draw risk while backing the clear favourite. Sheriff to Win to Nil is a higher-value option given their recent clean-sheet record — they have conceded just once in their last six matches, and Aluminij have struggled to score consistently. Over 1.5 Goals in the match is also reasonable given Sheriff's attacking output at home, where they have regularly scored two or more goals against domestic opposition.
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Aluminij's pre-season has been underwhelming and raises genuine concerns about their readiness for European competition. A 2-0 loss to FC Noah and two draws against modest opponents suggest the squad is still finding its rhythm. More worryingly, their end-of-season domestic form was poor — conceding 10 goals in their final three league matches. Facing a well-drilled Sheriff side in a competitive European qualifier, rather than a friendly, is a significant step up that their current form suggests they may struggle to handle.
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