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National Stadium Vasil Levski
PEN 5–4
CSKA Sofia won on penalties
This UEFA Europa League second qualifying round return leg pits CSKA Sofia against Qarabag at the National Stadium Vasil Levski, with the tie level after a goalless first leg. Bookmakers rate this a genuine coin flip, giving CSKA Sofia a slight edge at 36.8% against Qarabag's 34.1%, with a draw at 29%.
CSKA Sofia arrive unbeaten in three, winning two and drawing one, scoring 5 and conceding 3 in that span. Their domestic form has been productive going forward, though they conceded three in a recent league win, hinting at defensive vulnerabilities.
Qarabag are the form team on paper, unbeaten in three with six goals scored and zero conceded, including two clean sheets in Europa League qualifying against Vestri. Their attacking output has been sharp, but the goalless draw against CSKA suggests the Bulgarian side matches them defensively when it matters most.
CSKA Sofia only had two days of rest before this match after a midweek league fixture, a fatigue factor working against them, while Qarabag enter fresher off seven days' rest. That rest advantage, combined with Qarabag's superior defensive record and attacking sharpness, tilts this contest their way despite the market's slight lean toward the hosts. Expect a tight, cagey affair with the away side's quality and freshness proving decisive in a low-scoring finish.
Last 4 head-to-head matchups
These sides met just one week ago in the first leg of this Europa League qualifying tie, playing out a...
These sides met just one week ago in the first leg of this Europa League qualifying tie, playing out a goalless draw in Qarabag. That result is the only meeting between these teams in the past two years, giving neither side a psychological edge. The tightness of that first leg — no goals, no clear dominance — strongly suggests another close, low-scoring encounter in the return fixture at Vasil Levski.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsUEFA Europa League matches highlighted
3 of 15 in UEFA Europa League
Form Rating
6.3/10
CSKA Sofia head into this second leg unbeaten in three matches, with two wins and...
CSKA Sofia head into this second leg unbeaten in three matches, with two wins and a goalless draw against tonight's opponent. They've scored five and conceded three across that stretch, showing attacking intent but occasional defensive lapses, including three goals shipped in their last domestic outing against Botev Plovdiv. Rest is a concern here — just two days since their last match compares unfavorably to Qarabag's week off, and fatigue risk is rated high. Their home form this season is perfect through one match, and they'll need that support at Vasil Levski to overturn any European qualifying jitters.
3 of 15 in UEFA Europa League
Form Rating
5.7/10
Qarabag are the form side statistically, unbeaten in three with six goals scored and none...
Qarabag are the form side statistically, unbeaten in three with six goals scored and none conceded, including two clean sheets against Vestri in this same competition. Their attacking numbers are the standout feature, scoring at exactly two goals per game while shutting out three of their last four opponents. With seven days' rest and low fatigue risk, they arrive fresher than their hosts. The goalless first leg shows they can also grind out results defensively when required, a dual threat that makes them dangerous in this second leg.
2026/2027 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
Moderate
Moderate
Even
Low
CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag - Match Analysis
The first leg finished goalless, leaving this tie wide open heading into the second leg. Both teams arrive unbeaten in their last three matches, and while CSKA Sofia have home advantage, Qarabag boast a perfect defensive record with zero goals conceded and enter with a week's rest compared to CSKA's two days. These factors roughly cancel out, producing a near coin-flip market.
Draw No Bet: Qarabag is an appealing option, hedging against a draw while backing their defensive solidity and rest advantage. Under 2.5 Goals also stands out given the goalless first leg and the tactical caution typical of a tied two-legged qualifier, where neither side wants to gift the opposition space to counter-attack.
CSKA Sofia had just two days of rest before this fixture, rated a high fatigue risk, after a demanding domestic match where they conceded three goals. Qarabag, by contrast, enter with seven days' rest and haven't conceded a single goal in their last three matches. That freshness and defensive discipline could neutralize any home advantage CSKA hope to leverage.
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