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National Stadium Vasil Levski
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CSKA Sofia
52%
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CSKA Sofia vs Derry City prediction: two clubs from different footballing worlds collide in the UEFA Europa League first qualifying round, with the Bulgarian side hosting at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia.
CSKA Sofia enter this tie having shown inconsistency in their recent Bulgarian First League campaign, with a concerning 4-0 friendly defeat to Polessya just two weeks ago raising questions about their readiness. However, home advantage at a historic stadium carries genuine weight in European qualifying, and the Bulgarians will be motivated to progress.
Derry City arrive in decent domestic form, winning two of their last four League of Ireland Premier Division matches and showing attacking intent with a 4-1 home win over Bohemians. The Irish side has also demonstrated resilience, drawing against Shamrock Rovers on the road. They travel with confidence but face a significant step up in quality and atmosphere.
No statistical data is available for either team's season standings, and there is no head-to-head record between these clubs. With both teams at the start of their European campaigns, this is a genuinely open tie. CSKA Sofia's home advantage, experience in European qualifying, and the physical and psychological challenge of travelling to Bulgaria give the hosts a meaningful edge. A narrow home win is the most likely outcome, though Derry's recent form makes this far from a foregone conclusion.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsUEFA Europa League matches highlighted
0 of 15 in UEFA Europa League
Form Rating
5.7/10
CSKA Sofia's recent results paint a mixed picture. They recorded back-to-back Bulgarian First League wins...
CSKA Sofia's recent results paint a mixed picture. They recorded back-to-back Bulgarian First League wins in early May, including a notable victory over Ludogorets, but then lost three of their final four competitive matches of the season, including defeats to Levski Sofia. A 4-0 friendly loss to Polessya on June 24 is a concern heading into European competition. No season statistics are available, so per-game averages cannot be calculated. The Bulgarians have 12 days of rest since their last outing, which is a positive. Their home record at Vasil Levski and familiarity with European qualifying pressure are key factors in their favour.
0 of 15 in UEFA Europa League
Form Rating
5.3/10
Derry City arrive in reasonable shape from the League of Ireland Premier Division. They have...
Derry City arrive in reasonable shape from the League of Ireland Premier Division. They have won two of their last four league matches, including an impressive 4-1 home victory over Bohemians in June, and drew away at Shamrock Rovers. However, they have also suffered defeats to Galway United and Dundalk in that stretch, showing vulnerability on the road. No season-wide statistics are available. With 12 days of rest since their last match, fatigue is not a concern. The step up from Irish domestic football to a European away tie in Bulgaria represents a significant challenge in terms of intensity and atmosphere.
2026 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
CSKA Sofia vs Derry City - Match Analysis
CSKA Sofia benefit from home advantage at the National Stadium Vasil Levski, a large and intimidating venue for visiting sides. Playing in the Bulgarian First League, which sits at a higher UEFA coefficient level than the League of Ireland, gives them a structural edge. European qualifying experience at home, combined with Derry City's historically limited exposure to away ties in Eastern Europe, makes the Bulgarian side the logical favourite despite their inconsistent recent form.
Draw No Bet on CSKA Sofia is the standout alternative market. It removes the risk of a draw result while backing the home side's structural advantage. If you prefer goals markets, both teams have shown they can score in recent domestic fixtures, making Both Teams to Score a consideration. However, with the cautious nature of European qualifying first legs, an Under 2.5 Goals bet also has merit given the tactical conservatism both sides may adopt.
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Home advantage is particularly meaningful in early European qualifying rounds. Travelling clubs from leagues like the League of Ireland face unfamiliar environments, long journeys, and hostile atmospheres. Historical data across European qualifying shows home sides win roughly 55-60% of first-leg ties at this stage. For Derry City, managing the occasion and keeping a clean sheet would represent a strong result, setting up the second leg at home in more familiar surroundings.
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