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Atalanta
Atalanta15th in UEFA Champions League (4-1-3)
VS
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund17th in UEFA Champions League (3-2-3)

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund

Wednesday, Feb 25, 2026 · --:--

New Balance Arena

Final
Atalanta
4–1
Borussia Dortmund

Atalanta won

Our prediction was wrong
✗

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

The Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund prediction centers on a crucial Champions League Round of 32 second leg at the New Balance Arena. This UEFA Champions League preview highlights two teams in contrasting form phases. Atalanta enters with mixed recent results, winning three of their last five matches but suffering a damaging 2-0 defeat in the first leg. Dortmund arrives with superior momentum, having secured that crucial away victory and showing resilience with four wins from their last six outings. Key injuries plague both sides - Atalanta missing creative force De Ketelaere and striker Raspadori, while Dortmund faces defensive concerns with Can and Schlotterbeck questionable. The Italian side must overturn a two-goal deficit at home, requiring an aggressive attacking approach that could leave them vulnerable on the counter. Our expert picks favor Dortmund's experience in knockout situations, while free tips suggest exploring defensive markets given both teams' recent struggles with consistency.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 3 head-to-head matchups

Atalanta (0)Draws (1)Borussia Dortmund (2)
Feb 17, 26
(H)Borussia Dortmund2 - 0Atalanta(A)
H
Feb 22, 18
(H)Atalanta1 - 1Borussia Dortmund(A)
D
Feb 15, 18
(H)Borussia Dortmund3 - 2Atalanta(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters heavily favor Borussia Dortmund, who dominated the first leg with a commanding 2-0 victory at Signal Iduna Park...

Recent encounters heavily favor Borussia Dortmund, who dominated the first leg with a commanding 2-0 victory at Signal Iduna Park just eight days ago. Historical meetings show a competitive rivalry, with their 2018 Europa League encounters producing thrilling high-scoring affairs (3-2 and 1-1). However, Dortmund's recent psychological advantage and tactical superiority in the first leg gives them significant momentum heading into this decisive second leg encounter.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsUEFA Champions League matches highlighted

Atalanta

3 of 15 in UEFA Champions League

W
L
W
W
W
D
L
W
L
D
W
W
W
L
W

Form Rating

6.7/10

Atalanta Form Analysis

Trending

Atalanta's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins from their last five matches across all...

Atalanta's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins from their last five matches across all competitions. Their attacking prowess remains evident, scoring freely against Napoli (2-1) and Cremonese (2-1), plus a dominant 4-0 victory over Parma. However, defensive vulnerabilities emerged in the first leg defeat and a concerning 3-2 home loss to Athletic Club in their previous Champions League outing. The absence of Charles De Ketelaere through knee injury removes a crucial creative outlet, while Giacomo Raspadori's thigh problem limits their attacking depth. Sead Kolasinac's questionable fitness adds defensive concerns. Lookman and Retegui must step up to provide the goals needed for this comeback.

Borussia Dortmund

4 of 15 in UEFA Champions League

D
W
W
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
D
W
D
D
W

Form Rating

7.3/10

Borussia Dortmund Form Analysis

Analysis

Borussia Dortmund demonstrates strong recent momentum with four wins from their last six matches, including...

Borussia Dortmund demonstrates strong recent momentum with four wins from their last six matches, including that crucial 2-0 first leg victory. Their attacking firepower has been impressive, netting four goals against both Mainz and in a thrilling 3-2 win over Heidenheim. The 2-2 draw at Leipzig shows their resilience in difficult away situations. However, defensive stability remains a concern with key center-backs Niklas Sule and Nico Schlotterbeck carrying injury doubts. Emre Can's groin injury could disrupt their midfield balance. Despite these concerns, their psychological advantage from the first leg and experience in knockout competitions makes them dangerous. Adeyemi and Fullkrug provide the pace and finishing ability to exploit counter-attacking opportunities.

Season Overview

2026 Season

Record
Atalanta4-1-444.4%
Borussia Dortmund4-2-344.4%
Goals Scored
Atalanta10
Borussia Dortmund21
Goals Conceded
Atalanta12
Borussia Dortmund17

shieldAtalanta3

  • S. Kolasinac profile photo

    S. Kolasinac

    Injury
    Questionable
  • G. Raspadori profile photo

    G. Raspadori

    Thigh Injury
    Out
  • C. De Ketelaere profile photo

    C. De Ketelaere

    Knee Injury
    Out
S. KolasinacAtalanta
G. RaspadoriAtalanta
C. De KetelaereAtalanta

shieldBorussia Dortmund5

  • N. Sule profile photo

    N. Sule

    Thigh Injury
    Questionable
  • E. Can profile photo

    E. Can

    Groin Injury
    Questionable
  • N. Schlotterbeck profile photo

    N. Schlotterbeck

    Muscle Injury
    Questionable
  • P. Drewes profile photo

    P. Drewes

    Inactive
    Out
  • F. Mane profile photo

    F. Mane

    Thigh Injury
    Out
N. SuleBorussia Dortmund
E. CanBorussia Dortmund
N. SchlotterbeckBorussia Dortmund
P. DrewesBorussia Dortmund
F. ManeBorussia Dortmund

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

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Recent Form

Strong

H2H Record

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Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Atalanta-2
Borussia Dortmund+4

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund - Match Analysis

Why is Borussia Dortmund strongly favored despite playing away from home?

Dortmund's commanding 2-0 first leg victory gives them a crucial psychological and tactical advantage. They only need to avoid defeat to advance, allowing them to play defensively and exploit Atalanta's attacking desperation on the counter. Their superior recent form, with four wins from six matches, contrasts sharply with Atalanta's inconsistent displays. Additionally, key injuries to Atalanta's creative players De Ketelaere and Raspadori significantly weaken their attacking threat when they need goals most.

What alternative bets should I consider for Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund?

Draw No Bet on Dortmund offers excellent value at 65% confidence, protecting against a draw while capitalizing on their first leg advantage. Under 2.5 Goals presents another strong option given Dortmund's likely defensive approach and both teams' recent struggles with consistency. Both Teams to Score No could also provide value, as Dortmund may prioritize defensive solidity over attacking ambition, while Atalanta's injury-hit attack faces a stern test against organized German defending.

What are the stakes of this Champions League knockout match for both teams?

This second leg represents a season-defining moment for both clubs. Atalanta must overcome a two-goal deficit to keep their European dreams alive, requiring their most aggressive attacking display of the campaign. Failure means early elimination and focus shifts to Serie A qualification battles. For Dortmund, progression to the Round of 16 would validate their strong league position and provide crucial momentum for their title challenge. The winner advances to face Europe's elite, while the loser faces the disappointment of premature European exit.

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