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Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli
Parma won
Our Udinese vs Parma prediction centers on a closely contested Serie A preview where the home side holds a slight edge. Udinese sits 10th with 43 points, four places above 14th-placed Parma (36 points), creating a modest but meaningful gap. The bookmaker consensus favors Udinese at 43.6% probability, with the draw at 31.3% - reflecting the tight nature of this matchup. Udinese's recent form shows promise with wins over AC Milan and Genoa, plus a crucial home victory against Fiorentina. However, their home record remains inconsistent with five wins, five draws, and six losses. Parma arrives on the back of draws against Napoli and Lazio, showcasing defensive resilience but struggling for goals with just 0.72 per game. Both teams' high combined draw rate of 29.7% and low scoring average of 1.91 goals per game suggests a cagey encounter. With minimal injury concerns for both sides and adequate rest, this football tips today recommendation focuses on Udinese's home advantage and superior league position as key factors in our expert picks.
Moderate
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Recent head-to-head encounters favor Udinese, who won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Parma in November 2025. The previous meeting in...
Recent head-to-head encounters favor Udinese, who won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Parma in November 2025. The previous meeting in March 2025 also went to Udinese 1-0 at home. Over their last three encounters since 2024, Udinese has won twice with one draw, demonstrating clear superiority. The matches typically feature low-scoring affairs with defensive solidity from both sides, fitting the pattern of their current season performances.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted
15 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
5/10
Udinese enters with mixed but encouraging recent form, having secured impressive away victories at AC...
Udinese enters with mixed but encouraging recent form, having secured impressive away victories at AC Milan (3-0) and Genoa (2-0) in their last five matches. Their home form remains a concern with just five wins from 16 games, though they've shown they can rise to the occasion against quality opposition. The 3-0 home win over Fiorentina and draws with Como and Atalanta demonstrate their ability to compete. Scoring 1.19 goals per game while conceding 1.31 shows a slight defensive vulnerability. Key injuries to K. Davis and A. Zanoli may impact their defensive options, while J. Zemura remains questionable with a muscle injury.
15 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
4.7/10
Parma's recent form highlights their defensive organization but attacking struggles, managing just 0.72 goals per...
Parma's recent form highlights their defensive organization but attacking struggles, managing just 0.72 goals per game this season. Their last five matches produced four draws and one loss, including creditable stalemates against title-chasing Napoli and mid-table Lazio. Away from home, they've been more effective than at the Tardini, winning five of 16 road games compared to just three home victories. The 1-0 win at AC Milan stands out as their best recent result. With M. Frigan ruled out through knee injury and B. Cremaschi questionable, their attacking options remain limited. Their 37.5% draw rate reflects their tendency to grind out results.
2025/2026 Season
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Moderate
Unfavorable
High
Udinese vs Parma - Match Analysis
Udinese's favoritism stems from their superior league position (four places higher), recent head-to-head dominance with two wins from three meetings, and improved away form suggesting growing confidence. Their 0.22 points per game advantage over Parma, combined with home advantage, outweighs their patchy home record. The bookmaker consensus at 43.6% reflects these underlying strengths despite surface-level inconsistencies.
This match suits defensive-minded markets perfectly. Under 2.5 goals offers strong value given both teams average just 1.91 goals combined per game. Draw No Bet on Udinese provides safety while maintaining upside. Both Teams to Score 'No' appeals considering Parma's 0.72 goals per game average. The Asian Handicap markets also present opportunities given the narrow gap between these sides.
Recent form creates an interesting dynamic - Udinese shows improvement with big away wins at Milan and Genoa, suggesting growing confidence and tactical cohesion. Parma's four draws in five games demonstrates defensive solidity but highlights attacking limitations. This form divergence supports Udinese's slight favoritism while explaining why the draw remains a significant possibility at 31.3% probability.
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