· --:--
Unknown
Monza won
Monza host Sassuolo in a Serie A clash between two sides heading in opposite directions. Monza sit bottom of the table and remain winless this season, a run that continues to weigh on their confidence and results at both ends of the pitch. Sassuolo, by contrast, arrive with a far stronger points-per-game return and a tighter defensive record, giving them the clearer edge on paper.
The main driver behind the away lean is that form gap rather than any dramatic tactical mismatch. Expected-goals models actually project a closer contest than the raw form suggests, with Sassuolo only marginally ahead on underlying chance quality. That nuance matters for how the match may play out: rather than a comfortable away win, a narrow one-goal margin or even a high-scoring draw looks plausible if Monza can generate enough attacking moments at home.
No fresh injury or suspension news has emerged to shift the balance further, so the base statistical picture holds. Sassuolo's improved defensive structure should help them control key spells, while Monza's lack of a win all season remains the clearest red flag for backers weighing this fixture.
From a betting angle, Sassuolo to win looks the most defensible outcome given the form and table-position gap, though the draw at 28% and the tighter xG numbers suggest value could also lie in Sassuolo win-or-draw or a low-goal total rather than a heavily backed away margin. Medium confidence reflects that balance between clear form trends and a closer underlying performance level.
Last 5 head-to-head matchups
The last two meetings within our two-year window split evenly: Monza won 1-0 at home in January 2024, while a...
The last two meetings within our two-year window split evenly: Monza won 1-0 at home in January 2024, while a pre-season friendly in August 2024 ended 2-2. There's no dominant recent pattern between these sides, though Monza's home win suggests they can trouble Sassuolo when playing at their own ground. With both squads significantly changed since then, this history carries limited weight for Thursday's match.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted
4 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
5.3/10
Monza have won none of their four league games, drawing once and losing three, while...
Monza have won none of their four league games, drawing once and losing three, while conceding 11 goals already this campaign. Their form reads three losses in four, including a damaging 1-4 defeat to Inter, and they've yet to register a home win in Serie A this season. Injuries have hit hard, with Pessina, Ciurria, Toure, Ngonge, and Ziolkowski all missing this fixture, gutting midfield creativity and squad depth. Monza's attack has shown occasional promise, scoring six goals in four games, but the defense remains the critical issue. Without their injured contributors, the hosts look vulnerable defensively and short on options to change games from the bench.
7 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
4/10
Sassuolo have lost just once in their last four outings, winning two and drawing one,...
Sassuolo have lost just once in their last four outings, winning two and drawing one, including an impressive 3-2 victory over Juventus. Their points-per-game of 1.75 ranks comfortably above Monza's 0.25, and they've shown attacking sharpness with eight goals scored in four matches. Sassuolo do carry a lengthy injury list of their own, including Boloca, Kone, and Walukiewicz, which limits squad depth, particularly in defense and midfield. Their away form has been unremarkable so far, just one point from two trips, but the quality gap against a struggling Monza side should work in their favor. Their attacking output makes them a threat regardless of venue.
2026/2027 Season
Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Moderate
Moderate
Unfavorable
High
Monza vs Sassuolo - Match Analysis
Sassuolo hold a commanding statistical edge, sitting ninth with seven points compared to Monza's bottom-of-the-table one point. Their points-per-game of 1.75 dwarfs Monza's 0.25, and they've conceded a full goal per game less. Monza's injury crisis, missing five first-team players including Pessina and Ciurria, further tilts things toward the visitors despite them travelling.
Over 2.5 Goals stands out given a combined 3.5 goals per game and Monza's leaky defense conceding 2.75 per match. Draw No Bet: Sassuolo also offers value, protecting against a surprise draw while still backing the higher-quality side. Both Teams to Score is worth considering too, since neither team has kept a clean sheet in four league games this season.
Monza did beat Sassuolo 1-0 at home in their last competitive meeting, showing they can trouble this opponent on home turf. Desperation as bottom-placed side could spark a spirited performance, and Sassuolo's own injury list, including Boloca and Kone, weakens their squad depth. However, Monza's threadbare roster and poor home form make an upset unlikely without a major tactical shift.
Always gamble responsibly. If you need help, visit BeGambleAware.org
