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Stadio Via del Mare
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
43%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Lecce | Draw✦ AI Pick | Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Bet365 | |||
Pinnacle | |||
| Best Odds |
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Lecce vs Bologna at Stadio Via del Mare carries extra weight at the bottom of Serie A, with both sides occupying relegation territory early in the season.
Lecce sit 12th with 6 points from five games, boosted by home wins but undermined by a leaky defense conceding 2.0 goals per game. Their form has been erratic, alternating wins and heavy losses, including a 0-4 collapse against Roma and a 0-3 defeat to Milan. Injuries to Berisha, Geubbels, Gandelman and Tiago Gabriel have thinned their options.
Bologna arrive in worse shape by points, 18th with just 2 points and winless in five matches, though their underlying numbers are tighter — conceding only 1.2 goals per game and drawing twice in their last five. Dovbyk's absence hurts their attack, which has managed only 3 goals all season.
Head-to-head meetings since 2025 favor Bologna, including a 2-0 away win in April 2026 and a 2-2 draw in Lecce last September. Despite Lecce's home advantage, the market and underlying numbers suggest this is tight, low-scoring affair between two struggling sides. Our prediction leans toward a draw given Bologna's defensive solidity and Lecce's inconsistency, though Bologna's superior points-per-game form gives them a narrow edge if a winner emerges — making this one of the more unpredictable football tips today in Serie A's bottom half.
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Recent meetings since 2025 slightly favor Bologna, who won 2-0 away in April 2026. The September 2025 fixture in Lecce...
Recent meetings since 2025 slightly favor Bologna, who won 2-0 away in April 2026. The September 2025 fixture in Lecce ended 2-2, while a February 2025 meeting finished goalless. Across these three matches, Bologna remain unbeaten with one win and two draws, never losing to Lecce in this recent stretch. The pattern suggests tight, low-scoring contests between these two sides, with Bologna typically avoiding defeat even away from home.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted
9 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
5.7/10
Lecce have won two of their last five, but the form is wildly inconsistent —...
Lecce have won two of their last five, but the form is wildly inconsistent — a 3-2 win over Monza sandwiched between back-to-back routs, losing 0-4 to Roma and 0-3 to Milan. They've failed to score in three of five matches and conceded 10 goals in that span, a worrying defensive record. Multiple absences including Tiago Gabriel and Geubbels have disrupted squad depth. Home form offers some comfort with one win and one loss from two games, but the concession rate (2.0 per game) remains alarming against a Bologna side that defends well on the road.
9 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
4.3/10
Bologna remain winless through five league games, picking up two draws and three losses, sitting...
Bologna remain winless through five league games, picking up two draws and three losses, sitting bottom-but-one in the table. Their attack has badly stalled, scoring just 3 goals all season and failing to find the net in three matches. However, their defense has been their saving grace, conceding only 1.2 goals per game and keeping tighter contests than their position suggests. Dovbyk's muscle injury removes their most important forward option, compounding the goalscoring issues. Away form has been winless across two games, but the underlying defensive numbers suggest they can frustrate a leaky Lecce backline.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Lecce vs Bologna - Match Analysis
Bologna's low points total masks a genuinely tight defensive record, conceding only 1.2 goals per game compared to Lecce's leaky 2.0. The market factors in Bologna's superior underlying numbers and the 6-place gap in the standings. Two of their five results were draws rather than losses, showing resilience even without wins, which explains why bookmakers still install them as 47.2% favorites over home-side Lecce.
Under 2.5 Goals looks like strong value given both teams' poor scoring output and a combined goals per game of just 1.6. Draw No Bet: Bologna is another smart option, hedging against an outright win requirement while still capturing their edge in points per game. Both markets suit this matchup better than backing a clean moneyline winner in such an unpredictable relegation six-pointer.
Both clubs sit in the relegation zone, with Bologna 18th on 2 points and Lecce 12th on 6, making this a potentially crucial early-season six-pointer. A Lecce win would pull them further from danger, while Bologna desperately need their first victory of the campaign to avoid being cut adrift at the bottom of Serie A.
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