AS Roma vs Lazio
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Stadio Olimpico
Final
AS Roma
2–0
LazioAS Roma won
Our prediction was correct
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Stadio Olimpico
AS Roma won
AS Roma enter this Serie A derby clash against Lazio with compelling statistical advantages that favor a home victory. The Giallorossi have demonstrated superior attacking metrics through expected goals data, creating higher-quality scoring opportunities while maintaining defensive solidity compared to their city rivals.
Lazio's recent performances suggest they are underperforming relative to expectations, struggling to convert chances into goals consistently. This efficiency gap becomes particularly pronounced in high-pressure derby environments where clinical finishing often determines outcomes.
The home advantage at Stadio Olimpico provides Roma with additional tactical flexibility and crowd support that historically influences derby results. With mild May weather conditions posing no tactical constraints, both teams can implement their preferred playing styles without external disruption.
From a value perspective, Roma's 62% win probability aligns well with current market pricing, making the home victory an analytically sound selection. The significant gap between Roma's 62% chance and Lazio's 15% reflects the underlying performance metrics that consistently favor the hosts in this fixture.
Moderate
2025/2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Recent meetings between these rivals have been closely contested, with Roma holding a slight edge in the last two years....
Recent meetings between these rivals have been closely contested, with Roma holding a slight edge in the last two years. The Giallorossi won 2-0 at home in January 2025, while Lazio claimed a narrow 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture last September. The previous encounter in April 2025 ended 1-1, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture. However, Roma's superior current form and home advantage should tip the balance in their favor for this crucial derby clash.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted
13 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
6/10
Roma have been in outstanding form recently, collecting 12 points from their last five Serie...
Roma have been in outstanding form recently, collecting 12 points from their last five Serie A matches. Their attacking prowess was evident in the 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina and the spirited 3-2 comeback victory at Parma. The team has found the perfect balance between attack and defense, scoring freely while maintaining defensive solidity. At home, Roma have been particularly impressive with a 67% win rate at the Stadio Olimpico. Minor injury concerns include E. Ferguson (ankle) and the questionable B. Zaragoza (knee), but neither should significantly impact their strongest XI. The six-day rest period ensures optimal physical preparation for this crucial derby encounter.
12 of 15 in Serie A
Form Rating
5.3/10
Lazio's season has been characterized by inconsistency and underwhelming performances. Their recent form shows just...
Lazio's season has been characterized by inconsistency and underwhelming performances. Their recent form shows just one win in five matches, with heavy defeats to Inter exposing their limitations against quality opposition. The team's attacking struggles are evident in their meager 1.08 goals per game, while their propensity for draws (33% of matches) suggests a lack of cutting edge. Away from home, Lazio have managed just six wins from 18 matches, highlighting their travel difficulties. The absence of first-choice goalkeeper Provedel and key defender Romagnoli significantly weakens their defensive structure. With only three days' rest following their Coppa Italia defeat, fatigue could be a factor in this demanding fixture.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Track how betting lines shift across bookmakers
AS Roma
1.49
Draw
4.21
Lazio
6.72
Strong market confidence in home win.
Bookmakers
13
Last Quote
1.49
Initial Odds
1.65
Highest Odds
6.72
Confidence
62%
Strong
Even
Moderate
AS Roma vs Lazio - Match Analysis
Roma's dominance in the betting reflects their superior league position (5th vs 9th), recent form, and significant squad advantages. The 16-point gap between the teams tells the story of the season, with Roma fighting for Europa League qualification while Lazio languish in mid-table. Key injuries to Lazio's goalkeeper Provedel and defender Romagnoli further tilt the balance toward the hosts in this crucial derby encounter.
Roma Draw No Bet offers excellent value at around 75% probability, providing insurance against derby unpredictability while capitalizing on Roma's clear advantages. Over 2.5 Goals is another strong option given Roma's attacking quality and Lazio's defensive absences. For higher risk-reward, Roma -1 Asian Handicap could pay dividends given the significant quality gap between these city rivals.
The absence of first-choice goalkeeper Ivan Provedel and experienced defender Alessio Romagnoli significantly weakens Lazio's defensive structure. Provedel's replacement will face the pressure of a hostile Stadio Olimpico crowd, while losing Romagnoli removes leadership and experience from the backline. These absences, combined with Lazio's already poor away record (6 wins in 18), make their task almost impossible against in-form Roma.
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