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AS Roma
AS Roma1st in Serie A (1-0-0)
VS
Fiorentina
Fiorentina20th in Serie A (0-0-1)

AS Roma vs Fiorentina

Monday, Aug 24, 2026 · --:--

Stadio Olimpico

Final
AS Roma
4–0
Fiorentina

AS Roma won

Our prediction was correct
✓

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

AS Roma vs Fiorentina prediction: this Serie A opener at Stadio Olimpico pits a Roma side unbeaten at home last season against a Fiorentina team still finding its attacking rhythm. Bookmakers make Roma clear favorites at 56.1%, with the draw at 25% and Fiorentina down at 18.9%.

Roma closed last season strongly, winning six of their final eight Serie A matches including a resounding 4-0 demolition of this very opponent in May. Preseason form was mixed with wins and losses in friendlies, but competitive results tell the real story heading into round one.

Fiorentina managed just one win in their final seven Serie A matches last term, relying heavily on draws. They did show some spark in preseason and a Coppa Italia rout, but questions remain about their away potency, especially with wide options Sottil and Parisi sidelined.

Roma's Pellegrini and Bah are notable absentees, but squad depth and home advantage still favor the hosts. Expect Roma to control proceedings and continue their recent dominance in this fixture, with goals likely at both ends given both sides' attacking preseason tendencies, though Roma's superior finishing edge should be decisive.

Our football tips today lean toward Roma covering as home favorites, backed by a strong h2h record and clear market consensus favoring the hosts in this Serie A preview.

Key Factors

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

AS Roma (5)Draws (2)Fiorentina (3)
May 4, 26
(H)AS Roma4 - 0Fiorentina(A)
H
Oct 5, 25
(H)Fiorentina1 - 2AS Roma(A)
A
May 4, 25
(H)AS Roma1 - 0Fiorentina(A)
H
Oct 27, 24
(H)Fiorentina5 - 1AS Roma(A)
H
Mar 10, 24
(H)Fiorentina2 - 2AS Roma(A)
D
Dec 10, 23
(H)AS Roma1 - 1Fiorentina(A)
D
May 27, 23
(H)Fiorentina2 - 1AS Roma(A)
H
Jan 15, 23
(H)AS Roma2 - 0Fiorentina(A)
H
May 9, 22
(H)Fiorentina2 - 0AS Roma(A)
H
Aug 22, 21
(H)AS Roma3 - 1Fiorentina(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Roma have dominated this fixture recently, winning four of the last six meetings since 2023, including two lopsided 4-0 and...

Roma have dominated this fixture recently, winning four of the last six meetings since 2023, including two lopsided 4-0 and 2-1 results. Fiorentina's only win in this span came via a 5-1 rout in October 2024, showing they're capable of an upset but inconsistently. Two draws in this span suggest Fiorentina can frustrate Roma when organized defensively. The most recent meeting in May 2026 saw Roma cruise 4-0, reinforcing their psychological and tactical edge over Fiorentina heading into this new campaign.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A matches highlighted

AS Roma

9 of 15 in Serie A

D
L
W
L
D
W
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
L

Form Rating

6.3/10

AS Roma Form Analysis

Trending

Roma ended last season winning six of eight Serie A matches, including statement wins over...

Roma ended last season winning six of eight Serie A matches, including statement wins over Lazio, Bologna, and a 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina. Their attack looked sharp with multiple multi-goal performances, though a 5-2 defeat to Inter showed defensive vulnerabilities against elite opposition. Preseason friendlies were inconsistent, but that's typical this early. Losing Pellegrini to a thigh injury is significant given his creative influence, while Bah's knee issue affects fullback depth. Still, Roma's core spine remains intact, and home advantage at Stadio Olimpico has been a fortress in this fixture historically.

Fiorentina

6 of 15 in Serie A

W
D
D
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
D
L
D
D
W

Form Rating

6.3/10

Fiorentina Form Analysis

Analysis

Fiorentina's Serie A form tailed off badly at the end of last season, drawing four...

Fiorentina's Serie A form tailed off badly at the end of last season, drawing four of their last six league matches with only one win. Their attack has struggled for consistency, though a Europa Conference League win over Crystal Palace showed some quality. Preseason brought mixed results, including a heavy 8-1 friendly win but also a loss to QPR. Injuries to wide players Sottil and Parisi weaken their width and crossing options. Fiorentina will need a much sharper away performance than recent history suggests to avoid another lopsided defeat against Roma.

Season Overview

2026/2027 Season

Record
AS Roma0-0-00.0%
Fiorentina0-0-00.0%
Goals Scored
AS Roma0
Fiorentina0
Goals Conceded
AS Roma0
Fiorentina0

shieldAS Roma2

  • L. Pellegrini profile photo

    L. Pellegrini

    Thigh Injury
    Out
  • M. Bah profile photo

    M. Bah

    Knee Injury
    Out
L. PellegriniAS Roma
M. BahAS Roma

shieldFiorentina2

  • R. Sottil profile photo

    R. Sottil

    Back Injury
    Out
  • F. Parisi profile photo

    F. Parisi

    Knee Injury
    Out
R. SottilFiorentina
F. ParisiFiorentina

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Home Advantage

Moderate

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Even

Injury Impact

Moderate

Goal Difference
AS Roma0
Fiorentina0

AS Roma vs Fiorentina - Match Analysis

Why is AS Roma strongly favored against Fiorentina?

Roma have won four of the last six meetings against Fiorentina, including a 4-0 rout last May, and enjoy strong home form at Stadio Olimpico. Bookmakers price them at 56.1% due to this consistent head-to-head dominance and superior attacking output in recent encounters. Fiorentina's inconsistent finishing and current injury concerns further tilt the balance toward the hosts.

What alternative bets should I consider for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?

Beyond the straight moneyline, Roma -1 Asian Handicap offers value given their history of winning this fixture by multiple goals. Draw No Bet: AS Roma is a safer alternative for bettors wanting insurance against a surprise draw while still backing the favorite. Both markets capture Roma's edge without the full risk of a big handicap line.

Why might Fiorentina cause an upset against AS Roma?

Fiorentina have shown they can trouble Roma before, including a 5-1 win in October 2024, proving they're capable of an away shock. If their attack clicks early and Roma's makeshift midfield without Pellegrini struggles to create, Fiorentina's counter-attacking threat could exploit space. However, recent history and current injuries make this a tough ask for the visitors.

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