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Barradao
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
37.4%
#Confidence
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Vitoria host Vasco DA Gama at Barradao in a crucial Serie A (Brazil) survival battle, with both sides sitting uncomfortably close to the relegation zone. This Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama prediction carries significant weight — Vitoria sit 13th on 22 points, while Vasco are 17th on 20 points and currently in the drop zone.
Vitoria's home record is their biggest asset: six wins, one draw, and just one defeat in eight home matches this season, scoring 14 goals and conceding only three. That fortress mentality at Barradao makes them a genuine threat. Vasco, by contrast, have been dreadful on the road — zero wins, four draws, and four defeats in eight away games, conceding 22 goals in the process.
Vitoria carry a significant injury burden, with multiple players sidelined including Camutanga (broken leg), Edu (Achilles), and several others. Vasco have fewer absentees, though Jair and Mateus Carvalho are out with knee injuries. Both sides have had ample rest, reducing fatigue as a factor.
Bookmakers price Vitoria as slight favorites at 38.7%, with Vasco at 32.0%. Vitoria's dominant home form versus Vasco's woeful away record tips the balance. A Vitoria home win is the most logical outcome, with the hosts needing points to climb clear of danger.
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Looking only at the last two years of Serie A meetings, these sides have produced high-scoring encounters. In October 2025,...
Looking only at the last two years of Serie A meetings, these sides have produced high-scoring encounters. In October 2025, Vasco hosted Vitoria and lost 3-4 in a seven-goal thriller. In May 2025, Vitoria won 2-1 at Barradao. That gives Vitoria two wins from two recent head-to-head meetings, both decided by a single goal. The away team has scored in both fixtures, suggesting neither side shuts up shop completely in this rivalry.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
7 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
6.3/10
Vitoria's overall league record is modest — six wins, four draws, seven defeats — but...
Vitoria's overall league record is modest — six wins, four draws, seven defeats — but their home form tells a very different story. At Barradao, they have won six of eight, conceding just three goals across those matches, a remarkable defensive record. Their most recent Serie A home outing brought a 2-0 win over Internacional. The injury list is a concern, with Camutanga, Edu, R. Ramos, and several others sidelined, stretching the squad. Despite this, the team's home defensive solidity and crowd support make them a difficult proposition at Barradao.
8 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
5/10
Vasco's away form is among the worst in the division — zero wins from eight...
Vasco's away form is among the worst in the division — zero wins from eight away matches, with four draws and four defeats, conceding 22 goals on the road. Their last five competitive results include three Serie A defeats, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in all but one game all season. The Copa Sudamericana commitments have added fixture load, though both sides have had significant rest ahead of this game. With Jair and Mateus Carvalho unavailable through knee injuries, Vasco's options are further limited. Survival pressure is intense, but their away record offers little encouragement.
Showing 1-5 of 11 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama - Match Analysis
Vitoria's home record at Barradao is the key driver. They have won six of eight home matches this season, conceding just three goals — a defensive record that belies their mid-table standing. Vasco, meanwhile, have not won a single away game in eight attempts, conceding 22 goals on the road. That combination of home fortress versus away futility makes Vitoria the logical favorite, even accounting for their significant injury list.
Draw No Bet on Vitoria is the standout alternative market, offering protection if the match ends level while still paying out on a Vitoria win. Over 2.5 Goals is also worth exploring — the last two head-to-head meetings produced seven goals, and both teams concede regularly. Both Teams to Score is another option, as Vasco have scored in most away games despite losing, and Vitoria's attack has been productive at Barradao.
The stakes could not be higher. Vasco sit 17th on 20 points — inside the relegation zone — and desperately need a result to climb clear. Vitoria are 13th on 22 points, just two points above the drop. A Vitoria win would extend that gap to five points and provide crucial breathing room. A Vasco win would pull them level with Vitoria and potentially drag the hosts deeper into trouble. This is effectively a six-pointer for both clubs.
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