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Mirassol host Gremio in a crucial Serie A (Brazil) relegation-zone clash, with both sides desperately needing points to avoid the drop. This Mirassol vs Gremio prediction centres on a tight contest between two struggling sides separated by just three league places.
Mirassol sit 19th with 16 points, firmly in the relegation zone, while Gremio occupy 16th on 21 points — close enough that a Mirassol win could dramatically shift the standings. Bookmakers marginally favour the hosts at 41.1%, reflecting home advantage and a recent H2H record that strongly favours Mirassol on their own turf.
Gremio arrive with a significant injury list — six players absent — and a worrying away record of zero wins from nine road trips this season. Their Serie A form has been inconsistent, and their most recent competitive result was a friendly loss to Chapecoense. Mirassol, despite their league struggles, have shown they can win at home and have beaten Gremio in both recent meetings.
With both teams averaging under 1.2 goals per game and a combined goals-per-game rate of just 2.17, this figures to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Mirassol's home advantage, superior H2H record, and Gremio's dreadful away form tip the balance toward the hosts. A narrow home win is the primary prediction, though a draw remains very much in play.
Moderate
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2026 Season
Last 3 head-to-head matchups
Within the last two years, these sides have met twice in Serie A. Mirassol won 4-1 at home in April...
Within the last two years, these sides have met twice in Serie A. Mirassol won 4-1 at home in April 2025, and Gremio won 1-0 at home in September 2025 — each side winning on their own patch. The pattern of home dominance is notable and supports the case for Mirassol here. No away side has won in recent meetings between these clubs, reinforcing the home-advantage angle heading into this fixture.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
8 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
5.3/10
Mirassol have been inconsistent but show genuine fight at home, winning three and drawing three...
Mirassol have been inconsistent but show genuine fight at home, winning three and drawing three of nine home matches this season. Their last Serie A result was a 0-1 defeat away to Atletico Paranaense, but before that they beat Fluminense at home and claimed a Copa do Brasil scalp against RB Bragantino. Scoring just 1.06 goals per game is a concern, and they have failed to score in six matches. Injuries to Negueba and Igor Formiga are notable absences, though both sides have been dealing with squad depth issues.
7 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
6/10
Gremio's away record this season is alarming — zero wins from nine away league matches,...
Gremio's away record this season is alarming — zero wins from nine away league matches, with four draws and five defeats. They have conceded 12 goals on the road while scoring just five. Their most recent competitive action was a friendly loss to Chapecoense, and their last Serie A outing ended in a 1-3 home defeat to Corinthians. A lengthy injury list including Marlon (broken ankle), J. Nardoni (hamstring), and C. Pavon compounds their problems. Despite a reasonable home record, Gremio simply cannot be trusted to perform away from home.
Showing 1-5 of 8 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Mirassol vs Gremio - Match Analysis
Mirassol's home advantage is the key factor. They have won three and drawn three of nine home matches this season, and crucially they have beaten Gremio in both recent home meetings — including a 4-1 thrashing in April 2025. Gremio, meanwhile, have zero away wins from nine Serie A road trips. The combination of home form, H2H dominance, and Gremio's dreadful away record makes Mirassol the logical favourite despite their overall league position.
Under 2.5 Goals stands out strongly — both teams average under 1.2 goals per game, and the combined rate is just 2.17. In a high-pressure relegation battle, expect caution and few clear chances. Draw No Bet on Mirassol is another smart option, offering protection if the match ends level while still backing the home side. Both markets suit the defensive, low-scoring profile of this fixture and carry solid expected value.
The stakes could not be higher for Mirassol. Currently 19th and in the relegation zone on 16 points, they need a win to close the gap on the teams above them. Gremio sit 16th on 21 points — only five points clear of the drop zone. A Mirassol win would put real pressure on Gremio and drag them closer to danger. For Gremio, a draw or win would provide crucial breathing room. Both clubs are fighting to avoid Serie B football.
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