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AI Predicted Winner
Gremio
60%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Gremio✦ AI Pick | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
Bet365 | |||
Betfair | |||
1xBetBest Odds | |||
| Best Odds |
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Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc prediction: this Serie A (Brazil) clash pits a struggling mid-table Gremio side against a Chapecoense-sc team already staring at relegation to Serie B. Gremio sit 15th with 25 points, well below their season expectations, but their home record of six wins, three draws and two losses in eleven games is markedly stronger than their away form, where they remain winless.
Chapecoense-sc have collected just 11 points from 22 games, sitting bottom of the table with the division's worst goal difference at minus 23. Their away record shows zero wins in eleven attempts, conceding heavily on the road all season.
Gremio's recent form has been shaky, with three defeats in their last five, but a home win over Sao Paulo and a Copa Do Brasil victory over Mirassol show they can still produce results at home. Chapecoense enter on a mild upswing, beating Sao Paulo away last time out, but their underlying numbers remain poor.
Bookmakers heavily favor Gremio at 61.9% to win, and the underlying data supports that: a five-place standings gap, a +0.59 points-per-game edge, and Chapecoense's leaky defense all point toward a home win. Expect Gremio to control this one, though their own inconsistency at home keeps a clean sweep from being a certainty. Gremio to win remains the standout betting tips pick here.
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
These sides met twice already this season: a March Serie A draw hosted by Chapecoense (1-1) and a July friendly...
These sides met twice already this season: a March Serie A draw hosted by Chapecoense (1-1) and a July friendly won by Chapecoense (2-1) in Porto Alegre. That split result reflects the competitive nature of recent meetings despite the current table gap. With one win apiece and a draw across the last two years, history offers little edge to either side, making current form and league position far more reliable indicators for this fixture.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
7 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4/10
Gremio have won just six of 22 league games this season, but their home splits...
Gremio have won just six of 22 league games this season, but their home splits tell a different story: six wins, three draws and only two losses in eleven at home, with 21 goals scored compared to 14 conceded away. Their last five results show two losses sandwiching a win over Sao Paulo, highlighting inconsistency. Injuries to Kannemann, Gustavo Martins, Nardoni and Dodi thin out squad depth, though the core attacking options remain available. Expect Gremio to lean on their superior home platform to control possession and territory against a defensively porous visitor.
9 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
3/10
Chapecoense sit bottom of Serie A with just 11 points from 22 games and the...
Chapecoense sit bottom of Serie A with just 11 points from 22 games and the league's worst defense, conceding 46 goals. Their away record is winless across eleven matches, with eight losses and three draws, averaging over two goals conceded per game on the road. A surprising 1-0 win over Sao Paulo in their last outing offers a rare bright spot, but with eight players sidelined through injury or fitness issues, squad depth is a serious concern. Their away form and recent history suggest another difficult trip is likely.
Showing 1-5 of 8 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc - Match Analysis
Gremio hold a commanding edge on paper: a five-place standings gap, a +0.59 points-per-game differential, and a much stronger home record with six wins in eleven games. Chapecoense, by contrast, are winless away all season and have conceded 46 goals overall, the worst mark in Serie A. Combined with bookmaker odds near 1.51 for the home side, all signals point firmly toward Gremio dominating this matchup at home.
Beyond the straight home win, Gremio -1 Asian Handicap offers better value given Chapecoense's leaky away defense. Over 2.5 Goals is another strong option, as both sides have shown they can be breached defensively. For bettors wanting to protect against an unlikely draw, Draw No Bet: Gremio provides a safer route to backing the home favorite without moneyline draw risk.
Gremio need points to climb away from the lower-mid table and build momentum after a shaky recent stretch, while also juggling a Copa Do Brasil quarter-final schedule. Chapecoense, sitting bottom with just 11 points, are already fighting a steep battle against relegation to Serie B. A loss here would push them further toward the drop, making this a must-perform game for the visitors despite their poor away form.
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