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AI Predicted Winner
Palmeiras
45%
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Coritiba host league leaders Palmeiras in this Serie A (Brazil) Round 19 clash in Curitiba, with the visitors arriving as heavy favourites and the home side needing points to consolidate their Copa Sudamericana spot.
Palmeiras are the dominant force in Brazilian football this season — 41 points from 18 games, a goal difference of +17, and just one league defeat all campaign. Their away record is equally impressive: five wins, three draws, and one loss from nine trips. Coritiba sit seventh with 26 points, a perfectly balanced goal difference of zero, but their home form is modest — three wins, three draws, and two losses from eight home games.
Coritiba carry injury concerns, with five players listed as missing including Rodrigo Rodrigues (ankle), Keno (knee), and Tinga (calf). Palmeiras also have several absentees through international duty and suspensions, though their squad depth remains considerable.
Bookmakers price this firmly in Palmeiras' favour at 44.9% implied probability, and the data supports that view. The 0.84 points-per-game gap is substantial, and Palmeiras concede less than one goal per game. Palmeiras to win away from home is the standout prediction.
Moderate
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Only one head-to-head meeting falls within the last two years: Coritiba hosted Palmeiras in October 2023, losing 0-2. That result...
Only one head-to-head meeting falls within the last two years: Coritiba hosted Palmeiras in October 2023, losing 0-2. That result continues a dominant pattern for Palmeiras in this fixture — they have won four of the last four encounters across home and away venues. Coritiba's last victory in this fixture dates back to February 2021. The recent H2H record offers no comfort for the home side and reinforces Palmeiras' clear superiority in this matchup.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
13 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
5/10
Coritiba's season has been inconsistent — seven wins, five draws, and six losses from 18...
Coritiba's season has been inconsistent — seven wins, five draws, and six losses from 18 games. Their most recent Serie A outing ended in a 0-3 defeat at Flamengo, though they had beaten Bahia 3-2 at home the week prior. Home form is a concern: just three wins from eight home games, with two losses included. Defensively they are leaky, conceding 1.33 goals per game. The injury list is significant — Rodrigo Rodrigues, Keno, Tinga, and Pedro Morisco are all sidelined, limiting the manager's options heading into this tough assignment.
8 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
7.7/10
Palmeiras are the clear class act in the Brazilian Serie A this season. Twelve wins...
Palmeiras are the clear class act in the Brazilian Serie A this season. Twelve wins and five draws from 18 games, conceding just 13 goals all campaign — a remarkable 0.72 per game. Their away record is outstanding: five wins, three draws, one loss from nine away fixtures. Recent results include a 3-0 win at Flamengo and a 4-1 Copa Libertadores victory over Junior. Several players are absent through international duty and suspensions, but Palmeiras' squad depth means the coaching staff can rotate without significant drop-off in quality.
Showing 1-5 of 11 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Coritiba vs Palmeiras - Match Analysis
Palmeiras lead the Serie A with 41 points — 15 clear of Coritiba — and have lost just once all season. Their defensive record of 0.72 goals conceded per game is the best in the division, and they have won five of nine away games. Coritiba's home record is underwhelming (three wins from eight), and they head into this match with five players sidelined through injury. The quality gap is substantial and the bookmakers reflect it accurately.
Draw No Bet: Palmeiras is the standout alternative, removing draw risk while still backing the superior side. With a combined 3.0 goals per game average and Coritiba conceding 1.33 per game, Over 2.5 Goals is also attractive — Palmeiras have scored in all but one game this season. Both markets offer better risk-adjusted returns than the straight Palmeiras win for bettors who want to manage downside exposure.
It is possible but unlikely. Coritiba do have a functional attack — 24 goals scored this season — and playing at home in Curitiba provides some advantage. However, their injury list is long, their home record is poor, and Palmeiras have shown they can win away from home consistently. The last time Coritiba beat Palmeiras was February 2021. Without a significant Palmeiras off-day, an upset would require a near-perfect Coritiba performance.
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