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AI Predicted Winner
Coritiba
42%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Coritiba✦ AI Pick | Draw | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Best Odds |
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Coritiba vs Mirassol is a Serie A Brazil matchup between two mid-table sides pointing in different directions on the table but showing similar patterns in recent weeks. Coritiba sit ninth with 34 points, chasing Copa Sudamericana qualification, while Mirassol are 18th on 24 points and staring at the relegation zone.
Coritiba's home record is solid — five wins, three draws, four losses from twelve games — and they arrive off a win over Corinthians and a draw at Sao Paulo. Mirassol have been dreadful on the road, managing just one win in eleven away trips this season, but they head into this game unbeaten in three, including two draws against LDU de Quito in Libertadores action.
Injuries bite both sides. Coritiba are missing several defensive pieces including Thiago Santos and Lucas Ronier, while Mirassol are without Edson Carioca, Jose Aldo and Negueba, plus a suspension for Wallisson — a heavy toll on their attacking options.
The bookmakers make Coritiba clear favorites at 41.8%, and the home PPG advantage (1.42 vs 1.04) combined with Mirassol's poor away form supports that view. Expect Coritiba to edge this at home, though Mirassol's recent draw-heavy run keeps the stalemate very much alive as a threat.
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2026 Season
Last 3 head-to-head matchups
The two sides met once in the current Serie A season, with Mirassol edging Coritiba 1-0 back in March 2026...
The two sides met once in the current Serie A season, with Mirassol edging Coritiba 1-0 back in March 2026 as the home side that day. Beyond that, recent meetings date to the 2024 Serie B campaign, both won by the away team in those fixtures. With home advantage flipping to Coritiba this time and results split across the last two encounters, there's no dominant pattern to lean on here.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
13 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4.7/10
Coritiba have won two and drawn one of their last three, beating Corinthians 2-1 and...
Coritiba have won two and drawn one of their last three, beating Corinthians 2-1 and holding Sao Paulo to a draw before that. Their home form this season is respectable at five wins, three draws and four losses from twelve, with 20 goals scored at home. The defense is missing key personnel — Thiago Santos suspended, Lucas Ronier and Tinga out injured — which could open gaps at the back. Attacking output has been solid but inconsistent, scoring in most matches yet failing to score in seven of 24 outings overall. Watch for Coritiba's counter-attacking edge exploited in recent home wins.
9 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4/10
Mirassol arrive unbeaten in three, drawing with Santos and LDU de Quito either side of...
Mirassol arrive unbeaten in three, drawing with Santos and LDU de Quito either side of a heavy 5-1 defeat to Flamengo. Their away form is the concern — just one win in eleven road trips, conceding 18 goals in that span. Multiple attacking injuries hit hard here, with Edson Carioca, Jose Aldo and Negueba all missing, alongside Wallisson's suspension, stripping firepower from an already misfiring attack. Sitting 18th and flirting with the relegation zone, Mirassol need points badly but their travel record offers little optimism against a Coritiba side playing at home.
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Coritiba vs Mirassol - Match Analysis
Coritiba hold a nine-place table advantage and a stronger points-per-game rate (1.42 vs 1.04). Their home record this season — five wins, three draws, four losses — compares favorably to Mirassol's dismal away form of just one win in eleven trips. Combined with Mirassol's attacking injuries to Edson Carioca, Jose Aldo and Negueba, the bookmakers' 41.8% favorite tag for Coritiba looks well justified by the underlying data.
Draw No Bet: Coritiba is the standout alternative, protecting against a stalemate while still capturing value on the home favorite. Over 2.5 Goals is worth a look given both defenses have been leaky this season, with combined goals per game at 2.38. Double Chance (Coritiba or Draw) suits cautious bettors wanting a safety net against Mirassol's recent unbeaten run.
Coritiba are chasing points toward Copa Sudamericana qualification, sitting ninth and needing to build momentum after a mixed run. Mirassol, in stark contrast, are 18th and staring at relegation to Serie B, making this a must-win scenario for their survival hopes. The gulf in stakes could see Coritiba more relaxed while Mirassol are forced to press, potentially opening space at the back for the hosts.
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