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AI Predicted Winner
Coritiba
58%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Coritiba✦ AI Pick | Draw | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Best Odds |
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This Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc prediction centers on a Serie A relegation-zone clash between two struggling sides, though the gulf in current form clearly favors the hosts. Coritiba sit 11th with 27 points, while Chapecoense-sc prop up the relegation places with just one win in 20 games and a shocking minus-22 goal difference.
Coritiba have struggled for consistency lately, losing three of their last five, but their home record of three wins and three draws from ten games offers a solid platform. Chapecoense-sc, by contrast, have won only once in their last 20 league outings, conceding over two goals per game on average and shipping 41 goals total this season.
The visitors also face fixture congestion, having played a Copa do Brasil tie just days before and another scheduled shortly after this match, which could affect squad freshness. Coritiba enjoy a full eight days of rest heading into this one.
Bookmakers rate Coritiba strong favorites at 60.1%, and the underlying numbers support that view. Chapecoense-sc's leaky defense and lack of away form (zero wins in ten road games) make this a game Coritiba should control. Expect a routine home win, though Chapecoense's tendency to draw when not collapsing defensively keeps some value on the stalemate.
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The sides met once already this season, sharing a wild 3-3 draw in February 2026. Going back further, their recent...
The sides met once already this season, sharing a wild 3-3 draw in February 2026. Going back further, their recent meetings across Serie A and Serie B have been tightly contested, with two draws and split wins in the last two years. There's no dominant pattern between these two Brazilian clubs recently, but Chapecoense's current defensive collapse makes this history less relevant than the sharp form gap on display now.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
13 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4/10
Coritiba have managed just one win in their last five matches, including back-to-back home losses...
Coritiba have managed just one win in their last five matches, including back-to-back home losses to Cruzeiro and Palmeiras. Still, their season-long home record of three wins, three draws, and four losses from ten games shows they're competitive on their own turf, averaging 1.7 goals scored per home game. Injuries to Fabinho and Vini Paulista are notable losses but shouldn't derail their approach against a struggling opponent. Their defense has occasionally been open, but facing Serie A's worst attacking side eases that concern considerably this weekend.
8 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4/10
Chapecoense-sc's season has been miserable, sitting bottom with just one win in 20 league matches...
Chapecoense-sc's season has been miserable, sitting bottom with just one win in 20 league matches and a minus-22 goal difference. Their away form is even worse: zero wins, three draws, and seven losses on the road, conceding at an alarming 2.05 goals per game clip. Multiple injuries have compounded their issues, including several long-term absences in defense and midfield. With Copa do Brasil fixtures sandwiching this match, fatigue and squad rotation are real risks that could further weaken an already fragile side.
Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc - Match Analysis
Coritiba hold a significant edge in current form and league position, sitting 11th compared to Chapecoense's last-place finish. Chapecoense have won just once in 20 league games this season and have the division's worst goal difference at minus-22. Combined with Coritiba's superior home record and Chapecoense's winless away form, bookmakers rightly install the hosts as heavy 60.1% favorites.
Beyond the straight home win, Draw No Bet: Coritiba offers protection against an upset draw while still capturing most of the value. Given Chapecoense's defensive frailty, backing Coritiba to keep a clean sheet is also worth exploring, since the visitors have failed to score in eight of their 20 league matches this season.
Chapecoense face a demanding schedule, playing Copa do Brasil fixtures against Cruzeiro just days before and after this match, creating a medium congestion level. With an already thin squad hit by six reported injuries, rotation or fatigue could further expose their leaky defense against a fresher Coritiba side that has enjoyed eight days of rest.
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