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Neo Quimica Arena
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AI Predicted Winner
Corinthians
49%
#Confidence
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Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc prediction: this Serie A clash at Neo Quimica Arena pits a mid-table Corinthians side against a Chapecoense team already staring at relegation to Serie B.
Corinthians sit 10th with 32 points, a modest points-per-game of 1.28, but have won just one of their last five outings, including back-to-back losses to Santos and Coritiba. Injuries to Yuri Alberto and Andre pile more pressure on a stuttering attack that has managed only 26 goals in 25 games.
Chapecoense arrive rock bottom on 14 points, conceding a league-worst 46 goals and winning away just once all season. Their draw-heavy record (34.8% draw rate) suggests resilience in patches, but a defense shipping 2.0 goals per game on average leaves them exposed against any functioning attack.
The head-to-head history favors Corinthians heavily, and home advantage at Neo Quimica Arena should be decisive against a side with zero away wins. Expect Corinthians to control possession and create enough chances to edge a cagey, low-scoring affair, though their own inconsistent finishing keeps the door open for a draw. The prediction leans home win, but not with overwhelming confidence given Corinthians' shaky recent form.
Moderate
Weak
Even
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The two sides met once in the last two years, a goalless draw in Chapecoense's favor as hosts back in...
The two sides met once in the last two years, a goalless draw in Chapecoense's favor as hosts back in March 2026. That result hints at Chapecoense's capacity to frustrate stronger opposition defensively, even amid a dismal season. With only one qualifying meeting in the recent window, historical patterns carry limited weight here — current form and table position are far more telling than this single data point.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
8 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
5/10
Corinthians have struggled to find rhythm, winning just one of their last five matches and...
Corinthians have struggled to find rhythm, winning just one of their last five matches and suffering back-to-back Serie A defeats to Santos and Coritiba. Their home record this season sits at five wins, three draws and five losses from 13 games — hardly dominant for a side expected to beat relegation-threatened opposition. The attack has misfired without Yuri Alberto, who remains sidelined, while Andre's absence weakens midfield control. Their away win over Rosario Central in the Libertadores shows quality is there, but consistency has been the issue. Facing the division's weakest defense should offer a route back to winning ways, though Corinthians' own defensive solidity (10 clean sheets) may see this stay tight.
9 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
3/10
Chapecoense are marooned at the bottom with just two wins all season and an away...
Chapecoense are marooned at the bottom with just two wins all season and an away record showing zero victories from 11 attempts. Their goal difference of minus-22 is the division's worst, and they've shipped 46 goals in 23 matches. A narrow win over Sao Paulo and a draw with Bahia offer flickers of hope, but the overall trend is one of a team already resigned to Serie B. Multiple injuries, including Robert Conceicao and Yohan Cabaye's namesake winger Bolasie, further weaken an already threadbare squad. Their draw rate of nearly 35% suggests they can dig in defensively at times, making an outright capitulation less certain than the table alone implies.
Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries
Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-sc - Match Analysis
Corinthians sit 10 places above Chapecoense with a significantly better points-per-game rate, and crucially, Chapecoense have failed to win a single away match all season. While Corinthians have lost their last two league games, the gulf in defensive solidity and home advantage at Neo Quimica Arena still make them the logical favorites, even if not overwhelmingly dominant ones.
Under 2.5 Goals stands out given Corinthians' subdued home scoring and their recent trend of low-scoring matches. Draw No Bet: Corinthians is another sensible option, protecting against a surprise stalemate while still capturing the value of backing the stronger side without the outright win requirement.
Corinthians are fighting to climb into the Copa Sudamericana qualification picture and can't afford to drop more points after back-to-back losses. Chapecoense, meanwhile, are already staring down relegation to Serie B with just 14 points from 23 games, making this essentially a damage-limitation exercise as their season winds toward a disappointing conclusion.
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