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Arena Fonte Nova
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AI Predicted Winner
Bahia
58%
#Confidence
No odds data available for this match.
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Bahia host bottom-placed Chapecoense-sc at Arena Fonte Nova in what looks a highly favorable matchup for the home side. Sitting sixth in the Serie A table with 26 points, Bahia are chasing Copa Sudamericana qualification, while Chapecoense arrive rooted to the foot of the table with just 9 points and a goal difference of -16 — firmly in the relegation zone.
Bahia's overall form has been inconsistent, but their home record tells a more encouraging story: three wins, four draws, and just two defeats in nine home games. They head into this fixture on the back of a 4-1 friendly win and a 2-1 Serie A victory over Botafogo. Chapecoense, meanwhile, have won just once in 17 league outings and have failed to win a single away game all season — zero wins from eight away matches is a damning record.
Bahia carry a notable injury list, with Ruan Pablo, Nicolas Acevedo, Leo Vieira, and Luciano Juba all flagged as missing. However, the quality gap between these sides remains vast. Chapecoense concede nearly two goals per game and score just one, making them the division's most vulnerable side on the road.
With a 14-place gap and a points-per-game differential of 1.0 in Bahia's favor, the home win is the clear call. Bahia to win at Arena Fonte Nova.
Moderate
Moderate
Unfavorable
Moderate
2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
No head-to-head meetings between these sides fall within the last two years, so recent H2H data is unavailable. Looking further...
No head-to-head meetings between these sides fall within the last two years, so recent H2H data is unavailable. Looking further back, the record is relatively balanced across older Serie A and Serie B encounters, with both teams sharing wins and draws. That historical parity is largely irrelevant here given the enormous current quality gap — Chapecoense's 2026 campaign has been catastrophic compared to any previous season in this fixture history.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsSerie A (Brazil) matches highlighted
12 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4.3/10
Bahia have been inconsistent across all competitions but show genuine quality in patches. Their most...
Bahia have been inconsistent across all competitions but show genuine quality in patches. Their most recent competitive results include a 2-1 Serie A win over Botafogo and a 4-1 friendly victory, suggesting momentum heading into this fixture. At home, they have conceded just 10 goals in nine games — a solid defensive base. The injury list is a concern, with four players flagged as unavailable including Luciano Juba and Ruan Pablo. Despite this, Bahia's attacking output of 1.47 goals per game and their home fortress advantage make them clear favorites here.
6 of 15 in Serie A (Brazil)
Form Rating
4/10
Chapecoense's 2026 Serie A campaign has been a disaster. One win from 17 league matches,...
Chapecoense's 2026 Serie A campaign has been a disaster. One win from 17 league matches, a goal difference of -16, and zero away victories from eight attempts paint a bleak picture. They concede nearly two goals per game and have failed to score in six matches. Their recent activity has included Copa Sul-Sudeste fixtures and a friendly win over Gremio, but those results carry little weight against top-flight opposition. Away from home, Chapecoense have been completely toothless, scoring just four goals in eight road games while shipping 13. Relegation looks inevitable.
No reported injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Bahia vs Chapecoense-sc - Match Analysis
The gap between these sides is enormous. Bahia sit sixth with 26 points and a positive goal difference, while Chapecoense are bottom with just 9 points and a -16 goal difference. Crucially, Chapecoense have not won a single away game all season — zero wins from eight road matches. Bahia's home record is solid, and they have the attacking quality to exploit a Chapecoense defense that concedes nearly two goals per game on the road.
Over 2.5 Goals stands out as the best alternative market. Bahia score regularly at home and Chapecoense concede heavily away — the combination points strongly to a high-scoring game. Bahia Asian Handicap -1 also offers value if you want to back the home side with a margin. Avoid Both Teams to Score given Chapecoense have failed to score in six of their 17 league matches this season.
For Bahia, three points would strengthen their Copa Sudamericana qualification push — they currently sit sixth, right on the qualification boundary. Every home win matters in a tight mid-table race. For Chapecoense, the stakes are existential: they are deep in the relegation zone with just 9 points from 17 games. Even a win here would barely dent their deficit, but further defeats accelerate what looks like an inevitable drop to Serie B.
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