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Newcastle
Newcastle14th in Premier League (12-6-14)
VS
Bournemouth
Bournemouth11th in Premier League (10-15-7)

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Saturday, Apr 18, 2026 · --:--

St. James' Park

Final
Newcastle
1–2
Bournemouth

Bournemouth won

✗Our prediction was wrong

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction centers on a closely contested Premier League preview at St. James' Park. The bookmaker consensus suggests Newcastle as slight favorites at 47.8%, but the narrow position gap of just three places tells a different story. Newcastle sits 14th with 42 points while Bournemouth occupies 11th with 45 points, making this a crucial mid-table clash. Both teams enter with contrasting form - Newcastle has struggled with defensive consistency, conceding 1.47 goals per game, while Bournemouth's impressive 46.9% draw rate reflects their resilient approach. Key injuries impact both sides, with Newcastle missing Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton, while Bournemouth lacks Lewis Cook and Justin Kluivert. The combined goals per game of 2.91 suggests moderate scoring potential. With both teams averaging similar points per game (Newcastle 1.31, Bournemouth 1.41), our expert picks lean toward the draw as the most likely outcome. These free tips highlight excellent value in the stalemate market given both teams' tendencies.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 10 head-to-head matchups

Newcastle (3)Draws (5)Bournemouth (2)
Jan 10, 26
(H)Newcastle2 - 2Bournemouth(A)
H
Sep 21, 25
(H)Bournemouth0 - 0Newcastle(A)
D
Jan 18, 25
(H)Newcastle1 - 4Bournemouth(A)
A
Aug 25, 24
(H)Bournemouth1 - 1Newcastle(A)
D
Feb 17, 24
(H)Newcastle2 - 2Bournemouth(A)
D
Nov 11, 23
(H)Bournemouth2 - 0Newcastle(A)
H
Feb 11, 23
(H)Bournemouth1 - 1Newcastle(A)
D
Dec 20, 22
(H)Newcastle1 - 0Bournemouth(A)
H
Sep 17, 22
(H)Newcastle1 - 1Bournemouth(A)
D
Jul 1, 20
(H)Bournemouth1 - 4Newcastle(A)
A

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters between these sides show a pattern of tight contests. Their January 2026 FA Cup meeting ended 2-2 after...

Recent encounters between these sides show a pattern of tight contests. Their January 2026 FA Cup meeting ended 2-2 after 120 minutes, with Newcastle winning on penalties. The September 2025 league fixture at Bournemouth finished goalless. Looking back to 2024-25, Bournemouth secured a memorable 4-1 victory at St. James' Park, while their away fixture ended 1-1. This head-to-head record demonstrates evenly matched teams with a tendency toward draws and close results.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsPremier League matches highlighted

Newcastle

8 of 15 in Premier League

L
L
L
W
D
L
W
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L

Form Rating

4.3/10

Newcastle Form Analysis

Trending

Newcastle's home form has been inconsistent this season, winning eight of 16 matches at St....

Newcastle's home form has been inconsistent this season, winning eight of 16 matches at St. James' Park. Their recent results show defensive fragility, conceding in crucial defeats to Crystal Palace (2-1) and Sunderland (2-1). The absence of Bruno Guimaraes through muscle injury significantly weakens their midfield creativity and defensive stability. Joelinton's suspension compounds their problems in the engine room. However, their 2-1 victory over Manchester United demonstrated their capability against quality opposition. Alexander Isak remains their key attacking threat, but Newcastle's 1.47 goals conceded per game highlights ongoing defensive concerns that Bournemouth could exploit.

Bournemouth

14 of 15 in Premier League

W
D
D
D
D
D
W
D
W
W
D
L
W
L
D

Form Rating

6/10

Bournemouth Form Analysis

Analysis

Bournemouth arrives in excellent spirits following their stunning 2-1 victory over league leaders Arsenal at...

Bournemouth arrives in excellent spirits following their stunning 2-1 victory over league leaders Arsenal at the Emirates. This result epitomizes their resilient away form, having secured four wins from 16 road trips. Their remarkable 46.9% draw rate reflects a pragmatic approach under manager Andoni Iraola. The Cherries have shown impressive character in recent weeks, drawing with Manchester United and beating Everton away. Lewis Cook's hamstring injury removes a key midfield presence, while Justin Kluivert's knee problem limits attacking options. However, Dominic Solanke's goalscoring form and their organized defensive structure make them dangerous opponents capable of frustrating Newcastle's home crowd.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Newcastle12-6-1437.5%
Bournemouth10-15-731.3%
Goals Scored
Newcastle45
Bournemouth48
Goals Conceded
Newcastle47
Bournemouth49

shieldNewcastle4

  • Joelinton profile photo

    Joelinton

    Yellow Cards
    Out
  • F. Schar profile photo

    F. Schar

    Ankle Injury
    Out
  • E. Krafth profile photo

    E. Krafth

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • Bruno Guimaraes profile photo

    Bruno Guimaraes

    Muscle Injury
    Out
JoelintonNewcastle
F. ScharNewcastle
E. KrafthNewcastle
Bruno GuimaraesNewcastle

shieldBournemouth3

  • J. Kluivert profile photo

    J. Kluivert

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • L. Cook profile photo

    L. Cook

    Hamstring Injury
    Out
  • J. Soler profile photo

    J. Soler

    Hamstring Injury
    Questionable
J. KluivertBournemouth
L. CookBournemouth
J. SolerBournemouth

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Weak

H2H Record

Even

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Newcastle-2
Bournemouth-1

Newcastle vs Bournemouth - Match Analysis

Why is the draw the most likely outcome for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?

Statistical analysis reveals compelling evidence for a stalemate. Bournemouth's remarkable 46.9% draw rate is the highest in the Premier League, while Newcastle's inconsistent home form (8 wins from 16) suggests vulnerability. The minimal points per game difference (-0.10) and narrow position gap indicate evenly matched teams. Both sides enter with key injuries affecting their strongest lineups, further supporting a cagey encounter that ends level.

How do Newcastle's key injuries affect their chances against Bournemouth?

Bruno Guimaraes' muscle injury removes Newcastle's most creative midfielder and defensive shield, significantly weakening their tactical balance. Joelinton's suspension compounds this problem, leaving gaps in midfield pressing and ball-winning ability. These absences particularly hurt against Bournemouth's organized approach, as Newcastle lacks the personnel to break down compact defensive structures. The injuries transform Newcastle from slight favorites to vulnerable hosts in this crucial mid-table clash.

What makes Bournemouth dangerous opponents despite their lower league position?

Bournemouth's recent 2-1 victory over league leaders Arsenal demonstrates their giant-killing ability and tactical sophistication under Andoni Iraola. Their superior points per game (1.41 vs 1.31) and higher league position reflect consistent performances throughout the season. The Cherries' defensive organization, combined with Dominic Solanke's goalscoring threat, makes them capable of frustrating Newcastle's home crowd. Their impressive away record includes victories at quality venues, proving they thrive in hostile environments.

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