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St. James' Park
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AI Predicted Winner
Newcastle
42%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Newcastle✦ AI Pick | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Pinnacle | |||
Marathonbet | |||
| Best Odds |
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Newcastle vs Aston Villa at St. James' Park sees two mid-table sides seeking consistency, with the Magpies holding a five-place and 0.50 points-per-game edge heading into this Premier League clash.
Newcastle have been erratic, winning two of their last six league games including a heavy 4-1 defeat at Leeds, though their home record this season reads two wins and one draw from three unbeaten outings. Aston Villa arrive off a huge midweek Champions League win but have struggled domestically, taking just one win from six league matches and sitting in the relegation mix at 16th.
Fatigue could be a factor for Villa, who played Thursday night and have only two days' rest compared to Newcastle's four, while a congested run of four fixtures in 14 days adds further strain. Newcastle's home advantage and Villa's threadbare away form (one win, one draw, one loss) support the hosts as favorites.
Injuries bite both sides — Newcastle without Anthony Elanga, Villa missing Ian Maatsen and goalkeeper Andre Onana — but the hosts' superior home platform and Villa's fatigue make this a Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction leaning toward the hosts, albeit without total conviction given both teams' leaky defenses. Expect goals at both ends given the 2.67 combined goals per game average this season.
Moderate
Moderate
Even
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2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
These sides have split results evenly in recent meetings. Villa won the FA Cup tie 3-1 in February 2026, but...
These sides have split results evenly in recent meetings. Villa won the FA Cup tie 3-1 in February 2026, but Newcastle beat them 2-0 away a month later in the league. Their August 2025 Premier League meeting at Villa Park ended goalless. Across the last two years, scorelines have swung wildly, including a 4-1 Villa romp in April 2025, showing this fixture rarely settles into a predictable pattern and both attacking sides can punish mistakes.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsPremier League matches highlighted
6 of 15 in Premier League
Form Rating
5/10
Newcastle have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six league games,...
Newcastle have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six league games, with a damaging 4-1 loss at Leeds and a 4-1 defeat at Coventry exposing defensive frailties — they're conceding 2.17 goals per game. Home form is their strength though, unbeaten in three with two wins and a draw, scoring eight and conceding just four. Injuries to Anthony Elanga and Emil Jaouen weaken their attacking depth, while Valentino Livramento and Jacob Ramsey are doubts. Watch for their counter-attacking threat against a tired Villa backline, especially with Hull City and Tottenham both beaten convincingly in recent weeks.
6 of 15 in Premier League
Form Rating
4.7/10
Aston Villa's league form has been poor — just one win in six, with three...
Aston Villa's league form has been poor — just one win in six, with three defeats including a 4-0 hammering at Brighton. However, they thumped Fenerbahçe 6-0 in the Champions League just three days before this match, showing genuine attacking quality when confidence is high. Their away record is modest at one win, one draw, one loss, and they're without goalkeeper Andre Onana, Ian Maatsen and Matty Cash-era regular Victor Ruggeri. Short rest after a midweek European fixture and a congested schedule raise fatigue concerns. Watch for whether rotation affects their attacking intent at St. James' Park.
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Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa - Match Analysis
Newcastle hold a five-place table advantage and a stronger home record, unbeaten in three home league games this season. Villa, despite a dominant Champions League win midweek, have struggled domestically with just one league win in six and face short rest after playing Thursday night, adding fatigue to their away-day challenge at St. James' Park.
Over 2.5 Goals looks appealing given both sides average high combined goals per game and have shown defensive vulnerability this season. Draw No Bet: Newcastle is another sensible option, hedging against the sizeable 33.3% combined draw rate while still backing home advantage. Both markets offer better risk-adjusted value than a straight moneyline bet here.
Villa's 6-0 demolition of Fenerbahçe shows real attacking quality, but playing just two days before traveling to Newcastle creates genuine fatigue risk. Historically, teams on short rest after midweek European fixtures often underperform domestically. It's plausible Villa's legs tire in the second half, making a positive result harder despite their European confidence.
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