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MKM Stadium
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AI Predicted Winner
Draw
40%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Hull City | Draw✦ AI Pick | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|---|
1xBetBest Odds | |||
Pinnacle | |||
Marathonbet | |||
| Best Odds |
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Hull City host Ipswich at the MKM Stadium in a Premier League fixture where little separates the two sides in the table. A narrow one-place gap and just a 0.04 difference in points-per-game underline how evenly matched these teams currently are, with neither club carrying the kind of form edge that typically dictates a clear favorite.
The statistical profile here leans toward a stalemate. Hull have drawn 43% of their league matches this season, a frequency that stands out even among closely contested fixtures, while the home win probability sits at a modest 39%, far from dominant. Five of seven recognized draw indicators are present in this matchup, including the tight positional and PPG gap, reinforcing the case for a split result rather than a decisive winner on either side.
Market pricing adds further weight to this view, with bookmakers setting the draw at 27.5%, a figure that reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a token price. When combined with Hull's historical tendency to share points and Ipswich's inability to assert a clear edge in underlying metrics, the draw becomes the most balanced outcome to target.
Given the low confidence attached to this prediction, this looks better suited to draw-related markets or double-chance coverage than a straight match-odds punt. Hull City vs Ipswich shapes up as a tightly contested affair where the draw, at 40%, edges both the home win (36%) and away win (24%) as the statistically justified selection.
Moderate
Moderate
Unfavorable
High
2026/2027 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The two sides have met twice in the last two years, both times in the Championship, with the away team...
The two sides have met twice in the last two years, both times in the Championship, with the away team winning on each occasion — Hull won 1-0 at Ipswich in March 2026, before Ipswich returned the favor with a 2-0 win at MKM Stadium in November 2025. That pattern of away success breaks down somewhat now both sides play in the Premier League, but it highlights how competitive and unpredictable this fixture has historically been, with no draws in the recent meetings.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsPremier League matches highlighted
7 of 15 in Premier League
Form Rating
5.3/10
Hull City have stabilized into a solid mid-table outfit, going unbeaten in four of their...
Hull City have stabilized into a solid mid-table outfit, going unbeaten in four of their last five Premier League matches despite managing just one win in that stretch. Their underlying numbers are encouraging at home, where they remain undefeated this season with a win and two draws from three games, conceding only six goals in that span. The attack has been modest, scoring just over a goal per game, but three clean sheets in seven matches show defensive organization under pressure. Hull's extensive injury list is concerning in volume, though it lacks headline attacking names, meaning the squad's core attacking identity should remain largely intact for this fixture.
8 of 15 in Premier League
Form Rating
5.7/10
Ipswich's form has been erratic, alternating wins and losses with a solitary draw against Nottingham...
Ipswich's form has been erratic, alternating wins and losses with a solitary draw against Nottingham Forest in their most recent outing. Their away form is the clear concern, with just one win in four road matches and a worrying habit of conceding goals in bunches, including five at Manchester United. Zero clean sheets in eight league games underlines a defense that has struggled against quality opposition, though the attack has shown enough quality to score 12 goals in that time. With both injured players being squad rather than first-team regulars, Ipswich's away vulnerabilities remain the dominant storyline heading into this contest.
Showing 1-5 of 10 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
Hull City vs Ipswich - Match Analysis
Hull and Ipswich are evenly matched, separated by just one league position and a mere 0.04 PPG difference. Neither side shows a decisive edge, with the home win sitting at only 39%. Hull's 43% draw rate this season adds weight to a stalemate outcome, and with five of seven statistical draw indicators triggered, the numbers point firmly toward a split of the points rather than a clear winner.
Despite being slight favorites at 36%, Hull lack a dominant edge over Ipswich given the tight gap in league standing and PPG. Hull's own history of drawing 43% of matches this season suggests they often fail to close out games, even against similarly matched sides. Without a clear quality advantage, Hull may find it hard to break down Ipswich and convert their home advantage into a win.
Since the model favors a draw at 40% against a bookmaker price implying just 27.5%, backing the draw offers clear value. Alternatives include double chance (Draw/Hull) for safer coverage, or under 2.5 goals given the balanced, cagey nature suggested by the stats. Avoiding outright win bets on either side seems wise, as no team holds a statistically dominant advantage in this closely contested matchup.
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