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Gillette Stadium
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AI Predicted Winner
New England Revolution
54%
#Confidence
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New England Revolution host Toronto FC at Gillette Stadium in this MLS Eastern Conference clash, with the Revs sitting fourth in the East on 25 points while Toronto languish 13th with just 14 points — a nine-place gap that tells the story of two clubs heading in very different directions.
New England have been formidable at home this season, winning seven of eight home matches and conceding just seven goals on their own turf. Toronto, by contrast, have won just once in five away games and carry a leaky defensive record of over two goals conceded per game. The visitors also arrive with a significant injury list, including multiple absences across their defensive and midfield units.
Toronto's recent run of four consecutive losses heading into the summer break compounds their problems, while the Revs have the added motivation of pushing for a higher playoff seed. Multiple Toronto injury absences further weaken an already struggling squad.
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC prediction firmly favors the home side. The Revs' dominant home record, superior league position, and Toronto's injury-ravaged squad make this a strong home win scenario. Bookmakers agree, pricing New England at 53.9% implied probability, and the underlying data supports that assessment.
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2026 Season
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
Limiting the head-to-head to the last two years, these sides met twice in 2024-25. At Gillette Stadium in September 2025,...
Limiting the head-to-head to the last two years, these sides met twice in 2024-25. At Gillette Stadium in September 2025, the match ended 1-1. Toronto won the May 2025 home fixture 2-0. That gives Toronto one win and one draw from the two recent meetings, though both contexts differ significantly from today — New England are now in far stronger form and Toronto are in the midst of a difficult season with a depleted squad.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsMajor League Soccer matches highlighted
11 of 15 in Major League Soccer
Form Rating
6.3/10
New England have been one of the Eastern Conference's most reliable home sides, winning seven...
New England have been one of the Eastern Conference's most reliable home sides, winning seven of eight matches at Gillette Stadium this season with just one defeat. Their overall record of eight wins from 14 games places them fourth in the East. The Revs have been solid defensively at home, conceding only seven goals in eight home outings. Recent form shows a mixed but competitive run, with wins over Philadelphia Union, Charlotte, and Minnesota United. Injuries to Campana, Feingold, and Da are noted, though the squad depth and 13 days of rest heading into this fixture suggest they arrive fresh and well-prepared.
14 of 15 in Major League Soccer
Form Rating
3.7/10
Toronto FC arrive in poor shape. They have lost four consecutive matches across all competitions,...
Toronto FC arrive in poor shape. They have lost four consecutive matches across all competitions, conceding 10 goals in that run. Their away record is particularly alarming — just one win from five road games, with four defeats and a goals-against tally of 11. Toronto concede over two goals per game on average, and their defensive injury crisis is severe: Kerr, Wingo, Laryea, Kuscevic, Stefanovic, and Cimermancic are all listed as missing fixtures. Matheus Pereira and Cifuentes are also absent. This is a squad stripped of key personnel heading into a hostile away environment, making any positive result a significant challenge.
Showing 1-5 of 9 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC - Match Analysis
New England hold a commanding nine-place advantage in the Eastern Conference standings and have been nearly unbeatable at Gillette Stadium, winning seven of eight home games. Toronto arrive with a devastating injury list — at least eight players missing — and have lost four straight matches. The Revs' 0.79 points-per-game advantage over Toronto, combined with Toronto's poor away record of one win from five road trips, makes the home side clear favorites with strong statistical backing.
Over 2.5 Goals stands out given the combined 3.14 goals-per-game rate between these sides. Toronto have conceded freely all season and rarely keep clean sheets away from home. Draw No Bet: New England Revolution is another smart option — it pays out on a win or protects your stake in a draw, reducing risk while maintaining solid returns. Both Teams to Score is also worth considering given Toronto's tendency to find the net even in losing efforts.
Toronto's injury situation is genuinely severe. At least eight players are listed as missing fixtures, including key defensive and midfield contributors. Losing multiple defenders and creative midfielders simultaneously forces the coaching staff to field an understrength lineup against one of the East's better home sides. This significantly reduces Toronto's ability to defend compactly or create consistent attacking threat, making a competitive away performance very difficult to sustain for 90 minutes.
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