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TQL Stadium
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San Jose Earthquakes
44%
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FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: this Major League Soccer clash at TQL Stadium pits a leaky-defense home side against a genuine playoff contender. Cincinnati sit fifth in the Eastern Conference but have conceded 42 goals in 17 games, and their form has been erratic — wins and losses mixed with frequent draws.
San Jose, second in the Western Conference with a plus-15 goal difference, have been the more consistent side over the season, though their last two outings (a draw and a heavy loss to Orlando) show the squad isn't invincible right now. Their away record of six wins from eight is arguably their strongest asset heading into Cincinnati.
Both teams love an open game — Cincinnati average 2.41 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per match, while San Jose have been tighter defensively at 1.18 conceded per game but still find the net regularly. Combined goals per game across both squads sit at a lofty 4.47, pointing strongly toward goals at both ends.
Given the points-per-game gap favoring San Jose (1.94 vs 1.35) and their superior road form, the away side edges this as value, but Cincinnati's home scoring power and shaky Earthquakes recent form keep this from being a lock. Expect goals and a competitive, back-and-forth match with San Jose narrowly favored to leave Ohio with three points.
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2026 Season
Last 3 head-to-head matchups
These two have met three times, though only one meeting falls inside the last two years: a 4-2 home win...
These two have met three times, though only one meeting falls inside the last two years: a 4-2 home win for San Jose in June 2024. That result showed both sides' attacking tendencies, with six goals shared between them. Cincinnati's defense has generally struggled in this fixture historically, and given both teams' current attacking output, the trend toward multi-goal affairs looks likely to continue at TQL Stadium this time around.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsMajor League Soccer matches highlighted
13 of 15 in Major League Soccer
Form Rating
5.7/10
Cincinnati's form has been a rollercoaster — five wins, five draws, six losses in their...
Cincinnati's form has been a rollercoaster — five wins, five draws, six losses in their last 17 including a 4-3 win over Vancouver and a 6-2 romp over Orlando, but also damaging losses to Inter Miami and Columbus. Their defense is the concern, conceding 42 goals already this season, including four in their most recent away trip. At home, though, they've been much sturdier with five wins from eight. Watch for their attack, which has hit multiple goals in several recent matches, to test a San Jose defense that has occasionally wobbled on the road. K. Fletcher is out with a knee injury.
11 of 15 in Major League Soccer
Form Rating
5.7/10
San Jose have been one of the West's most consistent teams, winning ten of 17...
San Jose have been one of the West's most consistent teams, winning ten of 17 with just four losses and a plus-15 goal difference. Their away form is outstanding — six wins, one draw, one loss in eight road trips — built on a defense conceding just 1.18 goals per game. However, their last two matches yielded a draw and a heavy 4-0 defeat to Orlando, hinting at possible fatigue or rotation. San Jose carry a lengthy injury list including Edwards, Jones, Tsakiris and Adimabua, which could test their squad depth against a potent Cincinnati attack.
Showing 1-5 of 6 injuries
Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes - Match Analysis
San Jose's points-per-game (1.94) comfortably outstrips Cincinnati's (1.35), and their away record of six wins from eight this season is elite. Their defense has also been far tighter, conceding just 1.18 goals per game compared to Cincinnati's 2.47. Despite a recent blip against Orlando, San Jose's overall body of work marks them as the more reliable side heading into this fixture.
Over 2.5 Goals stands out given a combined 4.47 goals per game between both sides this season. Draw No Bet: San Jose Earthquakes is another solid option, hedging against a potential home draw while still backing the higher-quality side. Both Teams to Score is also worth considering since neither defense has been watertight in recent outings.
Cincinnati's form has been inconsistent, mixing high-scoring wins with damaging losses, while San Jose's excellent season has been dented slightly by a draw and a 4-0 defeat in their last two games. This recent dip narrows the gap between the sides, making the match closer than the season-long numbers suggest, though San Jose's overall body of work still gives them the edge.
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