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Toulouse
Toulouse10th in Ligue 1 (8-6-8)
VS
Paris FC
Paris FC15th in Ligue 1 (5-7-10)

Toulouse vs Paris FC

Saturday, Feb 21, 2026 · --:--

Stadium de Toulouse

Final
Toulouse
1–1
Paris FC

Draw

Our prediction was wrong
✗

Our Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Our Toulouse vs Paris FC prediction highlights a compelling Ligue 1 preview between two teams heading in opposite directions. Toulouse sits comfortably in 10th with 30 points, while Paris FC languishes in 15th with just 22 points, dangerously close to relegation. The hosts have shown impressive home form recently, winning three of their last five matches including a dominant 5-1 victory over Nice and a crucial 3-0 win over Paris FC in the reverse fixture. Paris FC arrives in crisis mode after a humiliating 5-0 defeat to league leaders Lens, extending their poor away record. With multiple key players missing through injury and suspension, including goalkeeper Maxime Lopez and defender Adama Camara, Paris FC faces an uphill battle. Our expert picks favor Toulouse to capitalize on home advantage and their opponent's defensive frailties. This represents excellent value for football tips today, with the hosts priced generously despite their superior form and free tips pointing to a comfortable home victory.

Key Factors

Home Advantage

Moderate

Last 5 head-to-head matchups

Toulouse (3)Draws (1)Paris FC (1)
Dec 13, 25
(H)Paris FC0 - 3Toulouse(A)
A
Apr 2, 22
(H)Toulouse2 - 1Paris FC(A)
H
Oct 23, 21
(H)Paris FC2 - 2Toulouse(A)
D
May 1, 21
(H)Paris FC3 - 1Toulouse(A)
H
Jan 5, 21
(H)Toulouse1 - 0Paris FC(A)
H

Expert H2H Analysis

AI Insight

Recent encounters heavily favor Toulouse, who demolished Paris FC 3-0 in December's reverse fixture at Stade Jean Bouin. That comprehensive...

Recent encounters heavily favor Toulouse, who demolished Paris FC 3-0 in December's reverse fixture at Stade Jean Bouin. That comprehensive victory showcased Toulouse's attacking prowess and Paris FC's defensive vulnerabilities. The historical record from their Ligue 2 days shows a more balanced affair, but current form suggests Toulouse holds a significant psychological advantage heading into this encounter.

Last 15 matches across all competitionsLigue 1 matches highlighted

Toulouse

12 of 15 in Ligue 1

L
L
W
D
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
D
L
D
D

Form Rating

6/10

Toulouse Form Analysis

Trending

Toulouse enters this match with renewed confidence after mixed recent results. Their home form has...

Toulouse enters this match with renewed confidence after mixed recent results. Their home form has been particularly impressive, highlighted by a stunning 5-1 demolition of Nice that demonstrated their attacking capabilities. The team has shown resilience with victories over Strasbourg and Brest, though consecutive defeats to Le Havre and Angers exposed some inconsistencies. Key injuries to Ibrahim Azizi and Frank Magri limit their attacking options, while Mark McKenzie's suspension weakens their defensive structure. Despite these setbacks, Toulouse's home record remains solid, and they'll be eager to build momentum in familiar surroundings. Watch for their dynamic midfield to control proceedings.

Paris FC

12 of 15 in Ligue 1

L
D
L
D
D
W
W
L
W
L
D
D
L
L
W

Form Rating

4.3/10

Paris FC Form Analysis

Analysis

Paris FC arrives in dire straits following a catastrophic 5-0 defeat to Lens that highlighted...

Paris FC arrives in dire straits following a catastrophic 5-0 defeat to Lens that highlighted their defensive fragility. Their recent form shows just one win in five league matches, with concerning losses mounting pressure on the coaching staff. The team's away record has been particularly problematic, struggling to create chances and maintain defensive solidity on the road. Multiple injury concerns plague their squad, with goalkeeper Maxime Lopez and key defender Adama Camara suspended through yellow card accumulation. Hamza Traore's knee injury further depletes their options. Their attacking output has been inconsistent, and confidence appears low following recent heavy defeats. The relegation battle intensifies with each poor performance.

Season Overview

2025/2026 Season

Record
Toulouse8-6-836.4%
Paris FC5-7-1022.7%
Goals Scored
Toulouse32
Paris FC26
Goals Conceded
Toulouse26
Paris FC39

shieldToulouse7

  • A. Dominguez profile photo

    A. Dominguez

    Inactive
    Out
  • M. McKenzie profile photo

    M. McKenzie

    Yellow Cards
    Out
  • A. Francis profile photo

    A. Francis

    Broken Leg
    Out
  • F. Magri profile photo

    F. Magri

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • R. Messali profile photo

    R. Messali

    Injury
    Questionable
A. DominguezToulouse
M. McKenzieToulouse
A. FrancisToulouse
F. MagriToulouse
R. MessaliToulouse
I. AziziToulouse
A. VossahToulouse

Showing 1-5 of 7 injuries

shieldParis FC10

  • M. Lopez profile photo

    M. Lopez

    Yellow Cards
    Out
  • H. Traore profile photo

    H. Traore

    Knee Injury
    Out
  • T. De Smet profile photo

    T. De Smet

    Ankle Injury
    Out
  • R. Riou profile photo

    R. Riou

    Injury
    Out
  • P. Hamel profile photo

    P. Hamel

    Calf Injury
    Out
M. LopezParis FC
H. TraoreParis FC
T. De SmetParis FC
R. RiouParis FC
P. HamelParis FC
S. CherguiParis FC
S. AlakouchParis FC
L. GueyeParis FC
A. CamaraParis FC
R. MatondoParis FC

Showing 1-5 of 10 injuries

Availability data is sourced from official team reports and may not reflect real-time updates.

More Predictions

All statistics and predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.

Recent Form

Moderate

H2H Record

Even

Injury Impact

High

Goal Difference
Toulouse+6
Paris FC-13

Toulouse vs Paris FC - Match Analysis

Why is Toulouse strongly favored against Paris FC in this match?

Toulouse holds significant advantages including superior league position (10th vs 15th), excellent recent home form with impressive victories over Nice (5-1) and previous dominance over Paris FC (3-0 in December). Paris FC arrives in crisis following a 5-0 defeat to Lens, with multiple key players suspended and injured, severely limiting their tactical options and defensive stability.

What alternative bets should I consider for Toulouse vs Paris FC?

The Asian Handicap market offers excellent value, particularly Toulouse -1 given their form advantage and home comfort. Over 2.5 Goals appeals due to Toulouse's attacking prowess at home and Paris FC's defensive struggles. Both Teams to Score No presents value considering Paris FC's poor away attacking record and mounting confidence issues following recent heavy defeats.

How do the injury lists affect this prediction?

Paris FC faces a defensive crisis with goalkeeper Maxime Lopez and defender Adama Camara suspended through yellow cards, while Hamza Traore's knee injury compounds their problems. Toulouse also has concerns with Ibrahim Azizi and Frank Magri injured, plus Mark McKenzie suspended, but their squad depth and home advantage should help overcome these absences more effectively than their struggling opponents.

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