AI vs Market Probabilities

• Lens
  65%vs 68%-3%
• Draw
  20%vs 19%
• Le Havre
  15%vs 13%+2%

Analysis

Our AI model strongly favors Lens based on comprehensive probability analysis of current form, home advantage, and head-to-head superiority. The 25-point gap between these teams reflects genuine quality differences, with Lens averaging 1.74 points per game compared to Le Havre's 1.05. Home fortress statistics show Lens conceding just 0.44 goals per game at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, while Le Havre's away defensive record is concerning. Expected value calculations indicate significant value in backing the hosts, despite their recent Marseille setback showing they remain vulnerable to quality opposition.

Value Bets Comparison Table

Recommendations

The smart bet approach identifies excellent expected value in backing Lens to win, given their superior home record and Le Havre's away struggles. Value bets emerge from Lens's consistent home performances - eight wins from nine matches suggests strong probability of victory. Their defensive solidity at home (four goals conceded) contrasts sharply with Le Havre's away attacking impotence (six goals in ten matches). Lens vs Le Havre betting tips recommend focusing on the hosts' win market, where the probability analysis suggests favorable odds. Consider the goal markets too, as Le Havre's defensive frailties could lead to a comfortable home victory margin.

Half-Time Result Prediction

• Lens

  Likely

• Draw

  Common

• Le Havre

  Possible

Other Markets

• Draw No Bet
• Asian Handicap
• First Goal Time
• Corners O/U

Analysis

Alternative markets offer intriguing opportunities for this fixture. Draw No Bet: Lens provides excellent insurance against an unlikely stalemate, combining their win probability with draw protection. The Asian Handicap market presents value, with Lens -1 reflecting their home dominance and Le Havre's away weaknesses. Over 2.5 Goals appeals given Lens's attacking prowess at home and Le Havre's defensive vulnerabilities. Both Teams to Score looks unlikely given Le Havre's poor away scoring record and Lens's defensive strength at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.