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Estadio Marcelo Bielsa
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AI Predicted Winner
Lanus
37%
#Confidence
| Sportsbook | Newells Old Boys | Draw | Lanus✦ AI Pick |
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| Best Odds |
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Newells Old Boys vs Lanus prediction: this Liga Profesional Argentina clash at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa pits a struggling home side against a form-conscious away outfit chasing knockout-phase security.
Newells sit 14th with just 15 points from 26 games, hampered by a negative goal difference and a tendency to draw too often. They've won only twice in their last ten league outings, though an unbeaten run of four games heading into this fixture shows some defensive resilience returning under pressure.
Lanus arrive in considerably better shape, sitting sixth with a healthier points-per-game rate and a positive goal difference built on 11 clean sheets. Their away form is more mixed than their home record, but recent wins over Estudiantes, Deportivo Riestra, and Defensa y Justicia point to genuine momentum.
The head-to-head history since 2026 heavily favors Lanus, including a 5-0 demolition of Newells earlier this year. Bookmakers rate this close to a three-way coin flip, but the underlying data — an eight-place position gap and a 0.56 points-per-game gap in Lanus's favor — supports the market's slight lean toward the away side. Expect a tight, competitive match given the high combined draw rate, but Lanus's superior defensive record and recent H2H dominance should tip the balance their way in a low-scoring affair.
Moderate
Moderate
Unfavorable
Low
2026 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
Last 10 head-to-head matchups
The only meeting within the last two years came in March 2026, when Lanus thrashed Newells 5-0 away from home...
The only meeting within the last two years came in March 2026, when Lanus thrashed Newells 5-0 away from home — a stark reminder of the gulf that's opened between these sides recently. That result alone skews the recent head-to-head picture heavily toward Lanus. With no other qualifying meetings in this window, this single data point carries significant weight, though Newells will hope home advantage and improved recent form help them avoid a repeat.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLiga Profesional Argentina matches highlighted
15 of 15 in Liga Profesional Argentina
Form Rating
6.3/10
Newells have struggled all season, sitting 14th with a negative goal difference and a win...
Newells have struggled all season, sitting 14th with a negative goal difference and a win rate below 27%. Their draw-heavy record (10 from 26) reflects a side that competes but lacks a clinical edge, scoring just one goal per game on average. Encouragingly, they're unbeaten in four matches heading into this one, including back-to-back draws against Velez and Rosario Central plus a win over Platense, suggesting the recent tactical setup has stabilized defensively. Home form is their best asset — four wins, six draws, only three losses in 13 games. Goalscoring remains the concern, with eight games this season yielding a blank. Consistency going forward will decide whether this uptick in results holds against a stronger Lanus side.
10 of 15 in Liga Profesional Argentina
Form Rating
5/10
Lanus sit sixth with 1.50 points per game, built on a solid defensive record of...
Lanus sit sixth with 1.50 points per game, built on a solid defensive record of 11 clean sheets and under a goal conceded per game on average. Their recent form includes three straight wins — over Estudiantes, Deportivo Riestra, and Defensa y Justicia — signaling strong momentum heading into this fixture. Away form is less commanding than at home, with just five wins from 13 on the road, but the underlying attacking numbers (1.15 goals scored per game) and defensive solidity give them a clear statistical edge. Continental football involvement earlier this year adds squad depth concerns, but domestic form has clearly been prioritized recently with three consecutive league victories.
Newells Old Boys vs Lanus - Match Analysis
Bookmaker odds are nearly even across all three outcomes (32.7% home, 31.9% draw, 35.5% away), reflecting genuine uncertainty. While Lanus have the better points-per-game record and sit eight places higher, Newells' improved recent home form and unbeaten run in their last four matches have narrowed the gap. The combined 32.2% draw rate further underscores how tightly matched this fixture actually is on paper.
Under 2.5 Goals looks appealing given both sides' modest scoring output and Lanus's strong defensive record with 11 clean sheets this season. Draw No Bet: Lanus is another sound option, protecting against a draw — a very live outcome here — while still backing the away side's superior underlying form and quality advantage over Newells this season.
It's plausible. Newells have gone four matches unbeaten heading into this fixture and boast a respectable home record with four wins and six draws in 13 games. Home advantage at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa, combined with Lanus's less convincing away form (five wins from 13), gives Newells a genuine path to at least avoid defeat, even if outright victory remains a tougher ask against the run of form.
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