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Unknown
Draw
Huracan enter this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture as clear favorites against a Deportivo Riestra side mired in one of the league's worst runs of form. Riestra remain winless in their last 14 matches, managing just one victory in their last five, and their attacking numbers back up the struggle, with only 11 goals scored and an xG of 19.3, the second-lowest mark in the division.
That combination of poor underlying output and a lack of results gives Huracan a clear statistical edge on home turf. With no confirmed injuries, suspensions, or managerial changes affecting either squad, the underlying picture stays straightforward: Huracan should control proceedings against a Riestra team lacking the firepower to threaten consistently on the road.
The market reflects this gap, and the model aligns closely with bookmaker pricing, giving Huracan a 48% win probability compared to just 20% for Riestra, with a 32% chance of a draw. Riestra's inability to convert chances or generate quality looks in front of goal is the key driver behind this gap, and there is little in recent matches to suggest an imminent turnaround.
For bettors, Huracan's home win looks the most logical angle given the disparity in attacking quality and recent momentum. Those seeking value could also consider a Huracan win combined with under-2.5 or 3.5 goals, given Riestra's difficulty scoring against organized defenses this season.
Last 4 head-to-head matchups
The two sides have met four times since 2024, with Huracan winning once, Riestra once, and two draws — including...
The two sides have met four times since 2024, with Huracan winning once, Riestra once, and two draws — including a goalless stalemate in February 2026 when Riestra hosted. That draw underlines how tight recent meetings have been. Huracan's 3-2 home win in May 2025 is the most recent decisive result on this ground, suggesting home advantage could again be the difference-maker in a fixture that has produced tight scorelines.
Last 15 matches across all competitionsLiga Profesional Argentina matches highlighted
13 of 15 in Liga Profesional Argentina
Form Rating
5.3/10
Huracan have won eight, drawn eight and lost seven from 23 games, sitting seventh with...
Huracan have won eight, drawn eight and lost seven from 23 games, sitting seventh with a plus-four goal difference. Their home form is notably stronger, five wins from ten matches with 1.04 goals scored per game overall. Recent results have been mixed — a loss to Sarmiento Junin followed a win over San Lorenzo — reflecting some inconsistency heading into this fixture. Ten clean sheets this season point to defensive reliability, though they've failed to score in eight matches too. With low fatigue risk after six days' rest, Huracan should be fresher and better prepared than their opponents for this home assignment.
8 of 15 in Liga Profesional Argentina
Form Rating
4.7/10
Deportivo Riestra's season has been miserable statistically: three wins, eight draws and ten losses from...
Deportivo Riestra's season has been miserable statistically: three wins, eight draws and ten losses from 21 games, leaving them 15th with a minus-seven goal difference. Their away form is the standout concern — no wins in ten road matches, with seven defeats and just three goals scored per game on average. A 1-1 draw against Gimnasia L.P. in Copa Argentina was their most recent result, extending a run where draws have papered over a lack of cutting edge, with 14 games this season where they failed to score. Medium fatigue risk after only four days' rest adds to their uphill task against a fresher home side.
2026 Season
No reported injuries or suspensions for either team
Moderate
Moderate
Unfavorable
Low
Huracan vs Deportivo Riestra - Match Analysis
Huracan hold a significant edge across nearly every metric: they sit eighth places higher in the standings, boast a superior points-per-game rate, and have a much stronger home record with five wins from ten matches. Riestra, by contrast, have failed to win any of their ten away games this season and average under 0.6 goals scored per game on the road, making Huracan's home advantage decisive in the eyes of bookmakers and the underlying data alike.
Under 2.5 Goals looks appealing given both teams' modest scoring output and a combined goals-per-game figure of just 1.56. Draw No Bet: Huracan is another sensible option, protecting against the 32.7% draw probability while still targeting the value in Huracan's home superiority. Both markets suit a match likely to be tight and low-scoring rather than an open, end-to-end affair.
It's unlikely but not impossible. Riestra's away form is dreadful — no wins in ten road trips — yet they have drawn frequently this season, including their most recent outing. If they set up defensively and frustrate Huracan, a draw is plausible given the 32.7% market-implied probability. An outright win, however, would go against nearly every statistical trend this season.
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